Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2000

HAV TO ACCESS THE POTENTIAL FOR MOR SEVERE WX THIS AFTN/EVE AND CHC
OF PRECIP TNGT IN S AND AGN ON FRI WITH RTN MOIST.

AT 18Z MOIST..UNSTBL AIRMS STILL OVR KY WITH BEST LI/S OVR ECNTRL
PTN CWA.  VSBL SAT INDCTS BNDRYS PRSNT N OF OH RVR WITH WK CDFNT
STILL OVR CNTRL IN.  NEW SWO CONTS SLGT RISK OVR ALL OF CWA WITH MDT
RISK CONFINED TO KS/OK/MO/AR.  PNTNL STILL THERE FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALG/VCNTY CDFNT AS IT CONTS S THIS AFTN/TNGT.

MDL LI/S...THCKNS INDCT CDFNT WILL CONT S OVRNGT WITH BST CHC PRECIP
OVRNGT VCNTY KY/TN BRDR.  MDLS PROBABLY INDCTG MCS DVLPG W VCNTY MDT
RISK AND MOVG E ALG CDFNT OVRNGT WITH INCRS IN MN RH FOR 12Z THURS.
SRN PTN CWA CONTS CLDY ON THURS WITH CHC SHWRS WHILE N SHOULD BE AT
LEAST PTLY SUNNY.  AT THIS POINT AM INCLINED TO CONT FFA ALG SRN PTN
CWA THRU 12Z.  WILL ACCESS FRTHR AS TSTMS DVLP DRNG COURSE OF
AFTN/EVE.

MOIST BGNS TO RTRN ON FRI AND OF WRM FNT AS LO PRES MOVS ACRS SRN
PLNS.  ETA MAY BE RUSHG PRECIP BUT 3HRLY POPS INDCT BST CHC AFTN SO
WILL INDCT SO IN ZNS.

AT LEAST TEMP TREND APPRS GD AND WILL LKLY DEVIATE LTL.

.SDF...FFA SCNTRL KY TNGT
RNK

WAA AT 850 OCCURS TODAY AS WELL.  FEEL THAT SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTN...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING THIS AFTN.

ALL MODELS SHOWING MORE TSTMS TONIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN
CONTINUED WAA AND NW FLOW ALOFT.  WILL PUT POPS IN GOOD CHANCE
CATEGORY AND WORD AS SCATTERED.  FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TROF MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FA DURING THE DAY...STABILIZING THE
ATMS.  AHEAD OF TROF...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE.  WILL KEEP
LOW CHANCE POPS GOING...BUT WILL END IN THE EARLY AFTN NW FA.

FWC/FAN TEMPS CLOSE THIS AFTN AND LOOK OKAY GIVEN WAA PATTERN. WILL
GO WITH WARMER FAN NUMBERS kTONIGHT IN CONTINUED SW FLOW AT SFC.
NUMBERS LOOK OKAY FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

.SDF...NONE
CS

KYZ023>030-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-241945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
130 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO INDCATE THAT A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.

WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER KENTUCKY
TODAY.  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH CROSSING THE OHIO
RIVER THIS EVENING AND COMING TO REST NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER
OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVER THE REGION.  SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN BECOME OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.  SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RNK

KYZ023>030-034>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082-250000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
130 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO INDCATE THAT A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.

WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER KENTUCKY
TODAY.  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH CROSSING THE OHIO
RIVER THIS EVENING AND COMING TO REST NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER
OVERNIGHT.  AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN FIRE OVER THE REGION.  SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVEN BECOME OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL SHIFT TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.  SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

RNK