Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
335 AM CST FRI NOV 24 2000

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL TX
MOVING E THEN NE ACROSS LA AND MS TODAY AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES
INTO THE N AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE MEAN TROF POSITION. UPPER
LOW OVER TX BECOMING NEG TILTED AS IT MOVES ACROSS LA WITH
SIGNIFICANT UVV MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS STATE. AT LOWER LEVELS...LOWS
ALONG THE CENTRAL TX COAST FORECAST TO MOVE RAPIDLY E AND NE
SWEEPING THRU FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. ETA IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
ON THIS MOTION THAN NGM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS NEAR 30 KT WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL TURNING IN LOWEST
5KM. INSTABILITY MAY BE A BIT LOW...BUT FEEL THAT COASTAL AREAS
CERTAINLY WILL BE INTO FAIRLY RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP ALONG TROF LINE
EXTENDING FROM LOW AND SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY...THOUGH AMOUNTS
MAY BE LIMITED DUE TO RAPID PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM. HOWEVER WITH
GROUND FAIRLY SATURATED FROM LAST WEEKS RAINFALL...SITUATION WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY...ESPECIALLY THE E PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SYSTEM MAY SLOW SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY IN ADVANCE OF LOW...AS EXPECT TO SEE
20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST TO 30 MPH OVER LAND IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE
LOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE S PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.

AFTER SFC LOW PASSES E OF AREA...SIGNFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS WRAPPED AROUND THE SYSTEM IN W FLOW AND FORECASTING
CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST SAT. AS SECOND SHORT WAVE SWEEPS ACROSS
AREA ON SUN...SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR...THEN WITH UPPER FLOW
BECOMING NW...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR ON MON.

MCB 65/50/61/43 +211
BTR 70/52/62/45 +111
MSY 73/56/62/49 +211
GPT 70/55/66/46 +411

.NEW...SCA PQL TO THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER INCLUDING LAKES
       PONTCHARTRAIN...MAUREPAS AND  BORGNE.

LA...WIND ADVISORY TODAY.
MS...WIND ADVIOSRY TODAY.

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-242100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
714 AM CST FRI NOV 24 2000

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TODAY AS WELL AS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...

A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER EAST
TEXAS. THE COMBINATION OF THE WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
STRONG SURFACE WIND COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LEVELS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...AND POSSIBLY PRODUCE ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ARE URGED TO
MONITOR THIS DEVE>LOPING WEATHER SITUATION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB-SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LOWER CASE).