Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
250 PM CST MON NOV 06 2000

AREA OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE E ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME INTENSIFICATION HAS TAKEN PLACE
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN UPPER JET MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VWP DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND A NUMBER OF CELLS HAVE BRIEFLY EXHIBITED ROTATION. EXPECT THE
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE MOVING E INTO MS AND EXTREME SE LA COASTAL
ZONES DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND BEFORE BEGINNING TO
WEAKEN BY EVENING AS JET MAX EXITS REGION AND TAIL END OF WEAK VORT
LOBE PULLS OFF TO THE NE.

MODELS FORECAST DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR TO TEMPORARILY WORK INTO
MUCH OF THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...AS A RESULT EXPECT ANY REMAINING
PRECIPITATION TO BE CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. DEEPER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO MAKE A RETURN BY LATE TUE AS ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION IN
THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT APPROACHES THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT A RATHER
UNSETTLED PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES IN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET AFFECT THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER UPPER
LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE EJECTED OUT OF THE MEAN WESTERN
UPPER U.S. TROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TUE...BUT WILL
STALL OUT BEFORE MOVING BACK N AND W AS A WARM FRONT OR INVERTED
TROUGH TUE NIGHT/WED. MODELS PROG NEXT FRONT ON THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE EJECTED OUT OF THE SW CONUS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THU WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY.

IN ADDITION TO KEEPING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL ZONES
TONIGHT...WILL SPREAD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE N
BY TUE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
T9HU.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS FOLLOW...

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PQL TO MS RIVER EXCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

11

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-070000-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
1005 AM CST MON NOV 6 2000

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT AS
A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM MCCOMB MISSISSIPPI TO HOUMA LOUISIANA. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF RAIN. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB-SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LOWER CASE).