Severe Thunderstorm Warning 259, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
200 PM CDT TUE SEP 5 2000

TRICKY FORECAST STILL IN PLAY THIS AFTERNOON.  THINKING FROM
MIDNIGHT SHIFT LOOKING PRETTY CONSISTENT STARTING 00Z WITH
ACTIVITY NOW MOVING IN FROM THE NE CORRELATING WELL WITH THE E
TROF.  ONLY DIFF 12HR OUT MAY BE EXTENT OF ACTIVITY WHICH SHOULD BE
HEAVIER E AND S OF THE LAKE AS MODELS SUGGEST.  MODELS STILL
INDICATING THE RIDGE SHIFTING W AND STRETCHING TOWARD THE NE AS THE
E TROF BECOMES INVERTED ACROSS THE W GULF.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW
MULTIPLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO MEANDER SWD STARTING LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU.  AT THE SAME TIME...SFC FLOW SHOULD ALSO
SHIFT TOWARD THE ESE ON WED ALLOWING FOR SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
RETURN.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL LA
STRETCHING TOWARD SOUTHERN MS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SWD THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE WASHING OUT INTO A TROF OF LOW PRES ON WED.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS
EXPERIENCED ACROSS THE REGION.  WILL DROP FORECASTED HIGHS A FEW
DEGREES ON WED...STILL ABOVE GUIDANCE THOUGH...BEFORE A BETTER DROP
IN TEMPS ON THU...MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES.  BOTH AVN AND ETA SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR WITH THIS FORECAST
SCENARIO.  WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED MORE
CONSISTENT WITH CLIMO.

MCB 071/092/070/088 1335  BTR I074/093/071/089 2435
MSY 078/092/075/089 2445  GPT 075/090/071/087 3445

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE
MS...NONE.

09

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-051800-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1000 AM CDT TUE SEP 5 2000

THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO REMAIN UNSTABLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE TO RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD LEVELS.  THIS IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A WEAK TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA.

AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN AND ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
OUTFLOW GUSTS NEAR 50 MILES PER HOUR...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
THRESHOLDS PREFERABLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ALONG
COASTAL LOCATIONS.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEB-SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX (ALL LOWER CASE).