Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2000

THE ETA MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION AT
THE MOMENT...TARGETING THE AREA SURROUNDING THE MID/UPPER LOW OVER
AL AND A POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE ALKLATEX REGION INTO
CENTRAL LA. A WEDGE OF DRY AIR OVER THE WRN HALF OF MS NOTED ON
SATELLITE HAS BEEN SUPPRESSING CLOUD COVER TODAY. WHILE THE MAIN
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS N CENTRAL LA INTO S CENTRAL MS...
ANOTHER CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE MS/LA BORDER
BETWEEN KBTR AND KMCB EXTENDING E INTO SE MS. IN ADDITION...RUC DATA
SHOWS AN 850 MB TROUGH BECOMING POSITIONED ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME TCU/SMALL CBS JUST SW OF MCB.

WITH THIS IN MIND...IT APPEARS THERE WILL NOT BE A REPEAT OF THE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS/MCS LIKE YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE -8 TO -12 LIFTED
INDICES SUPPORTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL INCLUDE A REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON GROUPING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LOW MEANDERING NEAR THE LA/GA BORDER
THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN THE LOW SLOWLY FILLS AND MAYBE DRIFTS SOUTH
TOWARDS THE GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN IN A GRADIENT REGION OF MOISTURE BETWEEN DRY AIR OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY THE MOIST AIR NEAR THE LOW. AT THE SURFACE...A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN W-E ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR THE CONVECTION. LOOKING AT HOW
THINGS ARE DEVELOPING TODAY...WILL TWEAK THE POPS A LITTLE LOWER...
BUT STILL KEEP THEM IN 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH SUNDAY.

REGARDING THE HEAT AND TEMPERATURES...DRY AIR AND LITTLE CLOUD COVER
HAS ALLOWED THE TEMPERATURE TO SOAR TO 104 DEGREES AT MCB AT 3 PM
WITH THE DEWPOINT DOWN TO 61. MODEL GUIDANCE WILL CONTINUE HAVE A
PROBLEM WITH THE RECORD HEAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ETA SURFACE
TEMPS WHICH ARE ACTUALLY TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
MORE WITH PERSISTENCE RATHER THAN THE MUCH COOLER FWC/FAN NUMBERS
FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW
80... EXCEPT NEW ORLEANS AND COASTAL AREAS COULD STAY UP NEAR 80 IF
RAIN DOES NOT COOL THINGS DOWN AND WINDS STAY UP.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...STATUS QUO LOOKS GOOD ON LABOR DAY...HEAT
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. SOME SLIGHT
COOLING MAY OCCUR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME THICKNESS COOLING
OCCURRING WITH A SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.

MCB 070/103/070/102 2222   BTR 074/101/074/100 2322
MSY 076/097/077/096 3333   GPT 074/095/075/093 3334

.NEW...NONE
.LA...NONE.
.MS...NONE.

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
951 PM CDT FRI SEP 01 2000

A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED INLAND
OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COASTAL COUNTIES AND TRACKED
SOUTHWEST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COAST...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND COASTAL WATERS.  IN ADDITION...FUNNEL
CLOUDS WERE REPORTED NEAR HEWES AND HIGHWAY 49 IN
HARRISON COUNTY AT 545 PM...NEAR HIGHWAY 49 AND
INTERSTATE 10 IN HARRISON COUNTY AT 545 PM...NEAR VIDALIA
IN HANCOCK COUNTY AT 612 PM AND NEAR HIGHWAY 607 AND
HIGHWAY 90 IN HANCOCK COUNTY AT 655 PM.

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0710 PM    3 N PEARLINGTON           MS   .75 INCH HAIL
09/01/00   HANCOCK                        DIME SIZE HAIL AT
                                          INTERSTATE 10 AND
                                          HIGHWAY 607. REPORTED
                                          BY LAW ENFORCEMENT
                                          OFFICIAL.

0711 PM    3 N PEARLINGTON           MS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/01/00   HANCOCK                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0805 PM    SCHRIEVER                 LA   .75 INCH HAIL
09/01/00   TERREBONNE                     REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0825 PM    PEARL RIVER               LA   .75 INCH HAIL
09/01/00   ST. TAMMANY                    REPORTED BY FORMER DUTY
                                          NWS EMPLOYEE.

0825 PM    SLIDELL                   LA   40 MPH TSTM GUST
09/01/00   ST. TAMMANY                    REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY
                                          NWS EMPLOYEE.

0827 PM    LAKE PONCHARTRAIN E       LA   49 MPH TSTM GUST
09/01/00   ST. TAMMANY                    REPORTED BY EALL1
                                          AUTOMATED OBSERVER.

0835 PM    2 SSE SLIDELL             LA   50 MPH TSTM GUST
09/01/00   ST. TAMMANY                    ALONG THE NORTH END OF
                                          THE TWIN SPAN
                                          INTERSTATE 10. REPORTED
                                          BY OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

0835 PM    PHOENIX                   LA   WIND DAMAGE
09/01/00   PLAQUEMINES                    TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0835 PM    BELLE CHASSE              LA   WIND DAMAGE
09/01/00   PLAQUEMINES                    TREES DOWN AND POWER
                                          OUTAGES. REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0845 PM    2 SSE SLIDELL             LA   1 INCH HAIL
09/01/00   ST. TAMMANY                    ALONG INTERSTATE 10
                                          JUST NORTH OF THE TWIN
                                          SPAN. REPORTED BY
                                          OFF-DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE.

0859 PM    SLIDELL                   LA   .75 INCH HAIL
09/01/00   ST. TAMMANY                    REPORTED BY OFF-DUTY
                                          NWS EMPLOYEE.

0904 PM    (NEW)LKFRNT ARPT NEW ORLN LA   39 MPH TSTM GUST
09/01/00   ORLEANS