Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
245 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2000

LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THAT HAS PERSISTED MOST OF THE SUMMER
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY WEEK...LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCORED OVER
THE MIDDLE US WITH TROUGH OVER E COAST. AVN AND ETA BOTH BUILD UPPER
HIGH SLIGHTLY EWD THROUGH EARLY. MODELS ALSO TAKE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH E COAST TROUGH AND CLOSES OFF H5 LOW OFF OF VA ETA
AND AVN ALSO INDICATING LOW PRES DEVELOPING E OF FLORIDA AT BASE OF
TROUGH. AVN IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT BUT OTHER
MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING E OF FL. AS
UPPER HIGH BUILDS EWD AND CENTERED N OF LA...AREA SHOULD REMAIN
WARMER AND DRIER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. WHILE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS
WLY...TYPICALLY A VERY DRY FLOW...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRES MAY BE
DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH N SO THAT HIGHER RH IS CONTAINED IN THE E
FLOW IN THE 900-700 MB LEVEL. ETA MODEL SOUNDING SHOW AN AREA OF
HIGHER RH IN THE 850-700MB LAYER THROUGH 48 HOURS AND PW IN THE
1.70-1.8 RANGE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR WIDELY SCT
TO SCT AFTERNOON TSTMS. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE
MID AND UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD NEWD WITH THE FORECAST AREA
BECOMING MORE DOMINATED BY ELY FLOW SUGGESTING TEMPS AND POPS TO
RETURN TO MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONDITIONS.

PRELIM TEMPS POPS

MCB  72 97 74 98 1212     BTR 76 96 75 97 1212
MSY  76 96 76 96 1312     GPT 74 96 73 96 2312

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE
MS...NONE

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