Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
200 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000

WEAK SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS N OF THE TIDAL LAKES INTO CENTRAL
MS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY MOVE NE OUT OF OUR CWA AS IT
PUSHES THE BIG WEATHER MAKER ACROSS MUCH OF THE E PORTION OF GULF
STATES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S CLOSE TO FIRING CONVECTIONS. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY WINDS ARE
VERY WEAK AND SHIFTING TO W THEN N TONIGHT WITH VERY SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT. HARD TO THINK THE MID LEVEL CAPPING BE
BROKEN. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL ENTERING THE AREA. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING THE FRI EVENING AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS TX AND LA
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW WITH ENOUGH GULF
MOISTURE BY THAT TIME WILL PROVIDE MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY BY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN N OF OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SE TO NEAR
THE COAST BY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY BY
FRI EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS SUN AND MON. NGM IS LITTLE TOO FAST AND
WEAKER ON HANDLING THE SECOND SHORT WAVE. PREFER AVN THOUGHT FOR
TIMING AND POPS ON FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WILL MAKE COUPLE
DEGREES ADJUSTMENT FOR TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRI. FRI NIGHT AND
SAT MODEL GUIDANCES LOOK OK.

MCB 60/71/55/66 0166  BTR 61/72/52/68 0066
MSY 62/74/55/70 0066  BIX 64/73/58/69 0066

.NEW...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

XX

LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-162100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1100 AM CST THU MAR 16 2000

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WELL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE
SEVERE. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE SOUTH OF THE TIDAL LAKES OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND ACROSS THE COASTAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE
PARISHES NORTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND THE COUNTIES OF SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI.

FOR MORE INFORMATION, VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LIX
(ALL LOWER CASE).

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1218 PM CST THU MAR 16 2000

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONDUCTED A
GROUND SURVEY OF THE TORNADO DAMAGE IN THE HOUMA AREA
TODAY. INFORMATION IN THIS STORM REPORT WAS SUPPLEMENTED
BY INFORMATION FROM THE TERREBONNE PARISH EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AERIAL SURVEY CONDUCTED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

THE DAMAGE PATH WAS APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES LONG.
DAMAGE PATH MOSTLY NARROW VARYING BETWEEN 25 AND 30 YARD.
THE TORNADO MOVED ON A NORTHWEST HEADING AND ON THE
GROUND APPROXIMATELY 6 MINUTES FROM 157PM UNTIL 203PM.
THE MAJORITY OF DAMAGE WAS CLASSIFIED AS WEAK TORNADO
DAMAGE WITH A SMALL PORTION AROUND PROSPECT AVENUE
CLASSIFIED A STRONG TORNADO DAMAGE F2.

AT
APPROXIMATELY THE SAME TIME A SHORT LIVED TORNADO TOUCHED
DOWN IN LAFOURCHE PARISH JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
COMMUNITY OF BOURG.

AROUND 10AM CST PARISH
EMERGENCY MANAGMENT REPORTED A WATERSPOUT FLIPPED OVER A
FISHING BOAT IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF  TERREBONNE PARISH
VICINITY OF OYSTER BAYOU. THREE MEN WERE ON BOARD AND TWO
OF THE MEN DROWNED.

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0158 PM    HOUMA                     LA   TORNADO
03/15/00   TERREBONNE                     *** 36 INJ ***
                                          EMERGENY MANAGEMENT
                                          REPORTED APPROXIMATELY
                                          70 BUILDING DAMAGED.

0205 PM    9 E LAROSE                LA   TORNADO
03/15/00   LAFOURCHE                      *** 1 INJ ***
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT. 1 MOBILE
                                          HOME DESTROYED

0315 PM    NORCO                     LA   WIND DAMAGE
03/15/00   ST.CHARLES                     TREES BLOWN DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

0330 PM    5 SE DES ALLEMANDS        LA   WIND DAMAGE
03/15/00   ST.CHARLES                     TREES BLOWN DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.