Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
330 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2000

FORECAST PROBLEM SEEMS TO BE UPFRONT WITHIN THE UPCOMING 6 TO 9
HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SWINGS THROUGH OUR
CWA THIS MORNING. AT 09Z THE FRONT WAS IN EXTREME W LA HAVING JUST
MOVED THROUGH KLCH. THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM
TUSCALOOSA AL TO KSIL AND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY AS ITS MESO-HIGH WAS
WEAKENING OVER KBTR. AM GROWING CONCERNED THAT THE PRE-FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY RE-IGNITE OVER THE METRO NEW ORLEANS AREA IF AN HOUR OR
TWO OF WARMING TAKES PLACE PRIOR TO THE ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS A
RESULT WILL MAINTAIN 30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
CWA...THE N AND W FOR LINGERING LIGHT RAINFALL AND THE S AND E FOR
ANTICIPATED SCATTERED BUT UNCERTAIN CONVECTION. WAS USING THE ETA
MODEL WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE OVERALL BUT DOES HOLD ON
TO PCPN THROUGH THIS EVENING DESPITE 10 PERCENT COLUMN RH. WILL SHOW
RAIN PRETTY MUCH CONFINED TO THE MORNING HOURS.

TEMPS MAY BE A BIT TRICKY THIS MORNING AS SOME WARMING MAY OCCUR
PARTICULARLY S OF THE TIDAL LAKES FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR ADVECTION. AS
A RESULT WILL GO A TAD HIGHER ON DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE KNEW METRO
AREA AND ALONG THE MS GULF COAST WITH TEMPS FALLING OR STEADY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WILL PROBABLY HOLD ON TO CLOUDINESS UNTIL H70 TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE EXTENDED...MRF SHOWING BROAD WAVELENGTH TROUGHING OCCURRING
OVER THE CENTRAL AND INTERMOUNTAIN WESTERN U.S. WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BECOMING STRAGGLED OVER THE MIDDLE GULF...WILL HAVE TO
CONSIDER POSSIBILITIES FOR A WEST GULF LOW OR OPEN WAVE DEVELOPMENT
WHICH CAN PLACE A BIG CONTINGENCY ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
TUE AND WED.

MCB 63/36/64/35 3000    BTR 65/39/65/39 3000
MSY 71/46/64/42 3000    BIX 74/45/64/45 3000

.NEW...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
       TO PASCAGOULA INCLUDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
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