Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
150 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE MONITORING STORMS THIS EVENING AND
THEN TEMPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND..

AS MORNING CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...HEATING IS REDEVELOPING
CU FIELDS OVER MUCH OF CWA. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES OVER AREA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP. CURRENT
STORMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TREND...AND SHOULD BEGIN
AFFECTING CWA IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  AT 18Z...STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MERRIMAN SOUTH TO NORTH PLATTE...THEN
SOUTHEAST TO CENTRAL KANSAS.

MODELS ALL INITIALIZED UPPER FLOW SIMILAR WITH CONTINUING RIDGE OVER
WESTERN CONUS...TROUGH IN EASTERN PACIFIC...AND TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST
CONUS. DIFFERENCES AT THIS LEVEL ARE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF EMBEDDED
WAVES. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS...WITH RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. NONE OF
THE MODELS HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION EXTREMELY WELL...BUT WILL
LEAN TOWARD ETA SOLUTION DUE TO PERSISTENCE/BOUNDARY LAYER
RESOLUTION.

TONIGHT...WILL COVER ENTIRE CWA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL MENTION SOME SEVERE IN PANHANDLE COUNTIES AND
FAR SOUTHWEST AS OUTLINED BY SWODY1 MODERATE RISK...ALSO IN NORTHERN
TIER COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING WITH ONGOING STORMS IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
BY DAYBREAK...MAIN MCS SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA. BOUNDARY LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY INDICATES STRATUS
AGAIN IN THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF FOG. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID 50S
TO LOWER 60S TO BE FOLLOWED.

SATURDAY...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW...LOW CLOUD DECK
TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE MORNING. WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE
AND 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WILL BLEND GUIDANCE
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...CAPE
VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG...WEAK INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO CARRY LOW
POPS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN FORCING OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA...AND WILL GO HIGHEST POPS IN FAR NORTHEAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC DRYING WILL KEEP
CWA DRY. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA...
WINDS TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WITH DEWPOINTS PROGGED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S...WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE JUST A BIT FOR LOWS.

SUNDAY...AGAIN...STRONG SUBSIDENCE INDICATED WITH CONTINUING DRYING
OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. EVEN WITH A
SOUTHEAST WIND...PLENTY OF INSOLATION SHOULD PUSH TEMPS TO GUIDANCE
NUMBERS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

EXTENDED...MRF CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY RIDGE AND BUILD IT EAST INTO
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MONDAY...WITH STRONG WAVES MOVING
THROUGH ZONAL FLOW ALONG CANADIAN BORDER...LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS
AND PUSHES FRONT THROUGH CWA ON MONDAY. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AS INDICATED BY 850 MB
DEWPOINTS TO 16C BY 00Z TUESDAY. WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVE TO
TRANSITION RIDGE IN SOUTH DAKOTA...COULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER SOME
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES TO BE NORTHERN TIER OF CWA...
SO WILL KEEP SOUTHERN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE. NEXT WAVE TO IMPACT CWA
TUESDAY EVENING. WITH ENHANCED UPSLOPE FLOW OVER SOUTHERN CWA...ALONG
850 MB FRONTAL POSITION...WILL HAVE TO KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN FORECAST...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN CWA...WILL KEEP NORTHERN COUNTIES
DRY. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO TRANSITION THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY. BY
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW AS TO THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
SHORTWAVES...SO WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AT THIS TIME OVER
ENTIRE CWA. TEMPS WILL BE CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD...LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO MID 60S...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S.

.LBF...NONE

M. MUTCHLER

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-212045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1115 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

...STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD BE ALERT
AND READY FOR ACTIVATION TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM MERRIMAN TO
STOCKVILLE. GENERAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO THE EAST.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA INTERACTS
WITH A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA. THE STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

DJB