Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2000

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN OHIO WITH
A WARM FRONT THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA TO A DEVELOPING LOW ON THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE OHIO LOW/S COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE JUST
ENTERING EAST KENTUCKY AND STRETCHING BACK INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS.
ON RADAR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ROLLING THROUGH EAST KENTUCKY.
A STEEPENING LAPSE RATE...COOLING AND DRYING MIDLEVELS AS THE UPPER
LOW APPROACHES...AND STILL AMPLE SFC MOISTURE AND HEATING ARE MAKING
FOR A VOLATILE MIXTURE OVER OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THIS
PERIOD. THEY ALL TAKE THE CURRENT UPPER LOW FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHEAST AND OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AT 48 HOURS. IN ITS PLACE A
STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD UNDERNEATH THE FAST FLOW AND INTO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. WE WILL DEAL WITH TWO SHORT WAVES TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS
THE MAIN ONE GOING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NEXT WEAKER ONE FOLLOWS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER THAT THE WAVES ALL REMAIN TO THE NORTH WHILE
THE RIDGE BUILDS IN.

AT THE SFC...THE LOW WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST BY ITS UPPER SUPPORT.
ITS WRAP AROUND CLEARS EAST KENTUCKY EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALLOWING
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION.

AS FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING. FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD EXPECT WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND THE SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER AS
COOLER AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE AND UPSLOPE PROVIDES SOME EXTRA
LIFT. MEMORIAL DAY WILL TURN OUT ALL RIGHT BUT RATHER CLOUDY. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING BUT FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT DRY. THE CU RULE SHOWS THAT THE
CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH CU FILLING IN ACROSS THE EAST IN
AREAS THAT SEE SUNSHINE. FOR THIS REASON WILL KEEP FROM MENTIONING
SUN AND ALSO DROP TEMPS A BIT FROM MOS. CLEARING SKIES TAKE HOLD
MONDAY NIGHT WITH COOL READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 50S REASONABLE.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE NICEST DAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER 80S IN RETURN FLOW. AGAIN
WILL UNDER CUT MOS TEMPS AS THEY ARE TOO WARM FOR THE PATTERN AND
850 TEMPS.

FWC AND FAN NUMBERS ARE FAR APART ON HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT AND WARMER NGM MOS VALUES...BUT NOT
AS HIGH BOTH DAYS.

WORK ZONES AVAILABLE IN THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL.

.JKL...NONE.

GREIF