Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
425 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

RATHER DIFFICULT FORECAST REGARDING AMOUNT AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP
FOR FIRST PERIOD.

06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING WARM FRONT PROGRESSING NORTHWARD ACROSS
FA THIS MORNING.  SHOULD MOVE MOSTLY OUT OF FA BY MID MORNING...BUT
DOES SEEM TO BE SLOWING DOWN QUITE A BIT.  ONE CONCERN IS CONVECTION
CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI MOVING INTO
WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE
TROUGH.  SO FAR THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF COOLING.  WITH A
DECENT LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...INDICATES THAT WE COULD BE SETTING
UP FOR A TRAINING EVENT OF HEAVY PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY.  THIS
BOUNDARY DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MOVING MUCH.  MOS NUMBERS ARE SHOWING
80 POPS FOR FIRST PERIOD...A FAR CRY FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN OF 30 AND
40 POPS.  ENOUGH OF A LOW LEVEL JET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER TO GO
CATEGORICAL POPS...BUT MAY MAKE A LAST MINUTE CHANGE IF I SEE A
TREND TOWARD SOMETHING DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  RIGHT NOW IT IS HARD TO TELL WHERE HEAVIER
PRECIP IF ANY WILL OCCUR TODAY ACROSS FA.  SOUTHERN COUNTIES
DEFINITELY AT MORE RISK FOR FLOODING THAN NORTHERN COUNTIES.  WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF ON A WATCH AND LET DAY SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AS
THE DAY WEARS ON.

THE BEST LIGHT SHOW WILL PROBABLY BE TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT DRAWS
NEARER AND INSTABILITY INCREASES A BIT.  WE HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVY RAIN AS PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS GENERALLY ABOVE 1.5
IN.  LOOKING AT A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WX FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  PROGGED FREEZING LEVELS AND WET-BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ARE RUNNING QUITE HIGH...SO CRITERIA AT LEAST FOR JUDGING
HAIL SIZE WITH STORMS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY BE MUCH HIGHER AS WELL.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WARM FRONT SEEMS TO BE SLOWING DOWN.  THIS
INDICATES THE OCCLUSION PROCESS WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE BY
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THE EARLIER CHARACTERISTICS OF A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER WAVE...WHICH INITIALLY HELPED TO BRING A
QUICK RETURN OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE REGION...IS BEING
HAMPERED BY A STUBBORN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.  WITH A
SURFACE OCCLUSION LOOKING MORE IMMINENT ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...COULD PUT A DAMPER ON MEMORIAL DAY PLANS.  HAVE ALREADY PUT
A SUNDAY NIGHT GROUP INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WE MAY NEED
TO ADD PRECIP CHANCE FOR MEMORIAL DAY.  DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK
AT MEMORIAL DAY A LITTLE CLOSER ONCE WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS
OCCLUSION PROCESS COUPLED WITH THE CLOSED UPPER LOW.  I LEAN MORE
TOWARD A WETTER SOLUTION ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING OF MEMORIAL DAY
AT THIS TIME.

.JKL...NONE.

HEINLEIN

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 AM    6 E MOUNT STERLING        KY  0.88 INCH HAIL
05/27/00   MONTGOMERY

HEINLEIN