Severe Thunderstorm Warning 226, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 PM EST SAT DEC 16 2000

LOW PRESSURE OVER TN IS DEEPENING AND WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...REACHING THE SOUTHWEST EDGE AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
EXITING THE EAST BEFORE SUNRISE. BREEZY/BLUSTERY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FFG VALUES ARE AS LOW AS A HALF INCH IN SOME OF THE
COUNTIES TO BE AFFECTED. WILL PROBABLY NEED TO USE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR OUR WESTERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE
RAIN...BUT DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE QUITE AS HEAVY FURTHER
SOUTHEAST AND WILL NOT PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS AREA IN A WATCH AT THIS
TIME. WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS IN PLACE...THERE IS ALSO THE THREAT OF
HIGH WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS FROM
WEST TO EAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN. COMPARED TO THE ETA...THE
AVN IS FASTER WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND STRONGER WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THUS BRINGS THE COLD AIR FASTER. THE TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THIS SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN...AND PREFER TO STICK CLOSER
TO THE ETA SOLUTION.

LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ON SUNDAY DUE TO A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC LIFT JUST
ABOVE THE COLDEST AIR NEAR THE GROUND. AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION LOOKS REASONABLE AND MAY REQUIRE A SNOW ADVISORY ISSUED
LATER.

THINGS QUIETING DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT.

.JKL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ZONES
044-50>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084.

HAL