Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
235 PM EST THU NOV 9 2000

THE MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR THIS RUN. EVEN THE MRF FROM LAST NIGHT
VERIFIED WITH THE POSITION OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER AR THIS
MORNING. THAT SHORT WAVE IS FORECASTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN IN THIS
EVENING AND INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXITS
FAR EASTERN KY LATER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER MUCH OF EASTERN KY
AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL OFF FAST
INTO THE LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR EARLY
FRIDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S AS COLD
AIR MOVES IN FROM THE CENTRAL STATES. A SHORT WAVE RIDGE THAT BUILDS
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN STATES
SATURDAY. THUS...SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOLLOWING COLD MORNING READINGS IN THE 30S.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MRF MODEL
SHOWS THAT A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC FORCES ANOTHER
CUTOFF LOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WHILE SHORT WAVE
ENERGY EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE NET EFFECT FOR EASTERN KY WILL BE A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST.

JKL 43/50 35/58  6000
LOZ 40/52 32/58  6000

WORK ZONES WILL BE OUT SOON UNDER SDFOZFJKL.

.JKL...TORNADO WATCH FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY UNTIL 8 PM.

SCHAUB

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-092000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1211 PM EST THU NOV 9 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN
KENTUCKY WILL MOVE EAST AT 30 TO 40 MILES PER HOUR. THE LINE OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY SOUTH
TO THE SOMERSET AREA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 6 PM...AND THEN CONTINUE EAST
DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

DUE TO STRONG WINDS THAT CHANGE DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT...
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE WEATHER
SITUATION...AND BE PREPARED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

STAY AWARE OF WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS BY LISTENING TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR OTHER MEDIA SOURCES FOR UPDATES.

SCHAUB