Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2000

19Z SFC ANALYSIS AND SFC OBS CONFIRM THAT THE LOW IS MOVING OVER LOZ
ATTM. THIS SYSTEM/S COLD FRONT IS MOVING STEADILY ACROSS OUR CWA AS
A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. TO THE EAST OF THIS FRONT
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING FROM 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH TO NEAR 40
ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LOW VIS AND FOG. THE UPPER LOW NEAR PAH IS
EVIDENT BY THE SWIRL ON THE IR SATELLITE LOOP. SNOW IS FALLING
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LOW WITH THE SYSTEM/S WRAP AROUND.

THE MODELS ARE IN THE BEST AGREEMENT I HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE AS THINGS
QUIET DOWN TEMPORARILY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
RAIN TODAY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BEHIND THIS MUCH WEAKER WAVES WILL
RIPPLE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT DOMINATES NORTHERN NORTH
AMERICA. EACH MODEL IS HANDLING THE NEXT WEAK WAVE A BIT DIFFERENTLY
AS IT ROLLS INTO THE MIDWEST IN THE FAST FLOW AT 48 HOURS.

AT THE SFC...THE LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND DEEPENING AS THE
CAA WRAPS AROUND AND INTO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES WITH A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL TIME THE CHANGEOVER TO LIGHT SNOW
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. THE MODELS PRINT OUT ABOUT A MAXIMUM
OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID AFTER THE CHANGEOVER. GIVEN THE WARM
AND WET GROUND...EXPECT THIS SNOW TO STICK MAINLY TO THE GRASSY
AREAS WHERE AS MUCH AS AN INCH IS POSSIBLE BY MORNING. MOS
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPSLOPE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME SUNDAY
BEFORE CLEARING TAKES PLACE WEST TO EAST...IT WILL BE COOL WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING. FAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE SKY FROM BEING
CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE DIRTY HIGH DRIFTS QUICKLY EAST. BY MONDAY
CLOUDS AHEAD OF A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WARRANT A PARTLY SUNNY
FORECAST. AVN HITS THE POPS MUCH HARDER THAN MOS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND GIVEN THE FAST FLOW FEEL THAT A SMALL CHANCE CAN/T BE
RULED OUT.

MOS AND FAN NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE...WILL JUST ADJUST LOZ LOW
TONIGHT DOWN CLOSER TO JKL IN THE UPPER 20S.

WORK ZONES ARE AVAILABLE IN THE AFOS PRODUCT SDFOZFJKL. THANKS FOR
THE SNOW COORDINATION MRX.

.JKL...NONE.

GREIF