Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
115 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2000

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DURATION AND AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON RETROGRADING UPPER RIDGE
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT
MORE AMPLIFIED WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SINK THROUGH
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR
ADDITIONAL MCS ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS PROJECTED BY ETA TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF
THE CWFA. HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS ON THE
NORTHERN HALF WILL EXACERBATE AN ALREADY WET SCENARIO SO AM
CONTEMPLATING EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA FOR AT
LEAST 12 HOURS. WILL DEFINITELY EXTEND WATCH FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
AT ANY RATE...FWC POP GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE TOO LOW FOR THE FIRST
PERIOD AND WILL BUMP UP SOMEWHAT.

ETA TIME SECTION DEPICTS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-AFTERNOON TOMORROW. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AROUND THROUGH THE SECOND PERIOD. FWC POPS LOOK REASONABLE HERE.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD PERIOD LOOKS DRIER AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OUT OF REGION. WILL OPT TO CONTINUE
A SMALL POP FOR THE THIRD PERIOD BUT KEEP FOURTH PERIOD DRY AT THIS
TIME. FAN AND FWC TEMPS AGREE QUITE WELL AND WILL FOLLOW CLOSELY.

EXTENDED...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WHILE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EAST RESULTING IN A
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW. THIS SETUP WILL TEND TO PUSH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW
DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. AM INCLINED TO LEAVE OUT MENTION
OF ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED EVENT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL RUN A
FEW DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY BEFORE REBOUNDING ON SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES. WORK ZONES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.

CCF
LOZ EB 070/084 067/084 066 23553
JKL EB 067/080 065/081 067 23443

.JKL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

LCM

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-111830-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1232 PM EDT TUE JUL 11 2000

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED THAT
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM OHIO INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY
THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP STRONG UPDRAFTS. AS A RESULT...COMPENSATING STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS COULD PRODUCEK DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER SOURCES FOR UPDATES.

SCHAUB