Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
130 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2000

CURRENTLY...MID DECK IS ERODING OVER MOST OF THE FA...BUT IS
HANGING TOUGH OVER NASSAU AND DUVAL COUNTIES. SUSPECT THAT A VORT
LOBE FROM THE NE GULF IS KEEPING THE MID DECK OVER JACKSONVILLE. AT
LEAST THAT IS SPARING THE AREAS OF THE HIGHEST POPULATION FROM THE
VERY HOT TEMPS. SOUTHEAST GA IS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 90S AND THE
VALDOSTA AREA IS ALSO SIZZLING. THE STNRY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS CNTRL
GA WITH A SHARP TEMP CONTRAST ACROSS THE STATE. WHILE AMG/AYS/VDI ARE
BAKING AT 97...ATL IS IN THE MID 70S WITH LGT RA! LOCALLY...HAVE
LITTLE DOUBT THAT A FEW CO-OP STATIONS WILL CRACK 100 TDA. MODELS
TEND TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND HAVE INITIALIZED WELL. SEE NO
REASON NOT TO GO WITH NGM MOS GUID WITH LOCAL TWEAKS NEXT FEW DAYS.

TONIGHT...THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE N OF THE FA...HOWEVER A FEW SHWRS/
TSTMS MIGHT ENCROACH ON THE XTRM NWRN CO'S. WILL COVER THAT IN THE
ZONES WITH SLGTLY INCREASED POPS N OF AMG/AYS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
DIURNAL CONVECTION TO COLLAPSE BY MIDNIGHT AND INDICATED SO IN THE
ZONE UPDATE. ANOTHER STEAMY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE FA AND WILL
INDICATE LOWER 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

MONDAY...AGAIN IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT AND FRONTAL WAVES WILL REMAIN
N OF THE FA. WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT THE XTRM NRWN COS FOR HIGHER
POPS. CAN'T RULE OUT AN OUTFLOW BNDRY BREAKING FREE AND SNEAKING INTO
THAT AREA. WON'T BE MUCH OF AN ATLC SEA BREEZE FOR IT TO INTERSECT
WITH AS THE SYNOPTIC SWRLY FLOW INHIBITS SEA BREEZE DVLPMNT. MOST
LIKELY THE SEA BREEZE AND SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL TEND TO CANCEL EACH
OTHER OUT AND LEAD TO A LIGHT WIND...5 KT OR SO...ALONG THE IMMD
COAST. BOTH AVN/NGM MOS GUID ARE GOING FOR THE LOWER 90S...I'M GOING
TO DO ONE OF THOSE LOCAL TWEAKS AND ADD 2-3 DEGREES PER STATION DUE
TO THE SW FLOW. SO WILL LIKELY GO MID 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

MONDAY NIGHT...OK...NOW THE FRONT FINALLY GETS A SHOVE INTO THE FA AS
AN UPR SHRTWV/VORT CNTR ROTATES OUT OF THE MS RVR VALLEY AND TWD THE
SERN US. LOOKS LIKE SHWRS/TSTMS WILL BEGIN TO SWEEP THROUGH THE GA
AND SUWANNEE VALLEY PORTIONS OF THE FA THRU SUNRISE. WILL INDICATE
THE HIGHEST POPS NW OF A LINE FROM ST MARYS-LAKE CITY-LIVE OAK. NGM
MOS TEMPS LOOK GOOD.

TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT TENDS TO HANG BACK OVER N FL WITH A
DAY LONG LGT/MOD RA ALONG THE FL-GA STATE LINE. JUDGING FROM THE
LATEST ETA RUN IT APPEARS THE BEST SHOT AT RA WILL BE FROM I-10 AND
POINTS NORTH. CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD BE THICK ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS
TO MAKE NGM MOS GUID REPRESENTIVE. HOWEVER...HAVE SOME QUESTIONS
ABOUT THE GNV/OCF AREAS WHERE WE MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO RAISE
TEMPS INTO THE MID 90S.

EXTENDED...THE FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN STATE ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS AND MRF IN GOOD AGREEMENT. ALL
BRING A FAIRLY STRONG HIGH ACROSS THE SERN STATES. SO LOOKS LIKE A
SUMMER TIME "LOCAL NORTHEASTER" SETTING UP FOR THE REGION. THESE
USUALLY ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE ONSHORE TO CAUSE SHWRS/TSTMS W OF I-
95 OR SO AND SHWRS OVER THE CSTL WATERS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF IT SETS UP THIS WAY OR NOT AS THE LOCAL CLIMATE DOESN'T QUITE SEEM
TO REACT AS IT DID IN THE 80S. WILL INDICATE COASTAL SHWRS FOR THE
ERN MOST COUNTIES + CLAY & PUTNAM IN THE EXTENDED. THE MRF FICTITIOUS
LOW FROM YDA'S DSCN IS NOW WELL OUT IN THE ATLC AND DOESN'T
CONTAMINATE THE MRF MDL GUID...THEREFORE WILL GIVE THE FMR A BIT MORE
WEIGHT THAN YDA'S RUN.

MARINE...WELL THE NOCTURNAL WIND SURGE IS INDICATED IN THE MESO-ETA
RUN AND WE HAVE IT COVERED FOR TNGT IN THE MARINE FORECAST. HAVE
INDICATED THE DEVELOPING "LOCAL NORTHEASTER" IN THE OUTLOOK PORTION
OF THE MARINE FORECAST.

PRELIM

AMG 71/95/69/85 3435
SSI 73/91/72/84 2325
JAX 72/96/71/88 2225
GNV 71/96/70/88 2215 05

.JAX...
.GA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTN
.FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THIS AFTN EXCEPT IMMEDIATE COAST

SANDRIK