Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1025 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2000

...UPDATED MARINE PORTION...

CURRENTLY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPR TROF OVER THE FA WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW CENTER OFFSHORE NOTED ON IR/EARLY AM VSBL IMAGERY.
CONVECTION OFFSHORE BEST PICKED UP BY AVN AND NGM AND HAS CONTINUED
TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY SINCE 13Z. SHRTWV OVER THE FA MAY SERVE AS
GOOD TRIGGER FOR STORMS S-SW OF TRAIL RIDGE THIS AFTN. CURRENT TROF
ACROSS GA CONTINUES TO MOVE S TWD FL.

FORECAST...EXPECT CURRENT OFFSHORE CONVECTION TO SHIFT INLAND BY MID-
AFTN. AVG H10-5 WIND VECTOR FROM THE NW WITH A LLVL ERLY FLOW
PROVIDING GOOD INFLOW...COMBINED THESE WILL PROVIDE GOOD SHEARING
FOR THIS AFTN'S CELLS. EXPECT MOVEMENT OF STORMS INTO COASTAL AREAS
THEN MOVING INLAND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF FA. INLAND VALUES OF
LI...OMEGA...RH...AND PW SHOW THE LIFT AND MOISTURE PARAMETERS WILL
PROMOTE MULTI-CELL DEVELOPMENT. STORM PROPAGATION WILL BE W-SW WITH
INDIVIDUAL CELL MOTION SRLY AT 10-15 KT. LOW FREEZING LEVELS/WBZ'S
OVER AREA INDICATED ON THE MESO-ETA SOUNDING...THUS GREATEST THREAT
ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS WILL BE (LARGE?) HAIL. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE NEAR 80 INLAND WITH COOLER TEMPS ALONG COAST.

MARINE...CURRENT CONVECTION OFF SE GA/NE FL SHORE BEGINS AT 20 NM.
STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SHIFT ON SHORE BY MID-
AFTN. EDISTO CONTINUES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND GRAYS REEF DID NOT
COME IN AT 10 AM. AS A COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WILL BLEND THE FL
WATERS SCEC WITH KCHS'S SCA AND GO WITH 20 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS
THIS AFTN FOR MY GA PORTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WIND SURGE TO
SEE IF IT LOOK LIKE IT WILL MAKE THE FL WATERS.

.JAX...
.GA...SCA ALTAMAHA RVR TO FERNANDINA BEACH.
      FIRE WX WATCH OKEFENOKEE SWAMP THIS AFTN.
.FL...SCEC FERNANDINA BEACH TO FLAGLER BEACH.
      FIRE WX WATCH SUWANNEE VALLEY THIS AFTN.

BROYLES/SANDRIK

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-151300-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
600 AM EDT MON MAY 15 2000

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL ALSO BE MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND STRONG WINDS. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  THE STORMS WILL FORM PRIMARILY EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND
WILL MOVE IN A SOUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.

DEESE