Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2000

RADAR LOOP SHOWS WIDELY SCT CONVECTION OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH STORM MOTION NE ABOUT 5-10 KT. GOES-8 SATELLITE SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR CAPES NEAR 1500 J/KG. MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES
BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM ABOUT LAKE CITY SWD.

FORECAST...MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THIS PACKAGE. AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT HAS HELPED BRING WELCOME SHOWERS TO THE CWA IS GOING
TO BE MOVING E INTO THE W ATLC. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A COOL FRONT OVER OHIO AND MS VALLEY TO MOVE SE
TOWARD THE CWA THROUGH THE PD. MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL
GA BY WED AFTN AND S GA LATE WED NIGHT/THU MORNING. AVN APPEARS THE
FASTEST WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT BUT NOT BY MUCH. MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THE FRONT AND SO ANY RAIN CHANCES WOULD PROBABLY BE SLIGHT. IN
ADDITION TO THIS...5H HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THU. THUS IT APPEARS WE
WILL SEE RAIN CHANCES DWINDLING THROUGH THU DESPITE THE NEW
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WE SEE TODAY. WITH HIGH PRES RIDGE AXIS TO THE S
AND SW TO W FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD BE GETTING CLOSE TO 90 DEG. GUIDANCE
TEMPS APPEAR REASONABLE.

MARINE...MODEL PROGS POINT TO INCREASING WINDS MAINLY ACROSS THE N
HALF OF THE COASTAL WATERS. MAY SPLIT ZONES N TO S TO INDICATE WINDS
APPROACHING SCEC BUT WILL LEAVE OUT ANY HIGHLIGHTS THIS PACKAGE.

EXTENDED...NOT MUCH CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. LOOKS AS THOUGH SUMMER PATTERN
BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD WITH TEMPS GENERALLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER
90S.

PRELIM...
AMG 61/89/61/88 -10-
SSI 65/86/64/81 110-
JAX 63/89/63/88 110-
GNV 62/88/63/88 110- 02

.JAX...
GA...FIRE WX WATCH TIL SUNSET
FL...FIRE WX WATCH TIL SUNSET INLAND COUNTIES EXCLUDING PUTNAM/CLAY

ARS

AMZ435-450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-092200-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1205 PM EDT TUE MAY 9 2000

...HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH SUNSET...

DUE TO THE DRY AIRMASS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF
INLAND NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA RESULTING IN A HIGH
FIRE DANGER. THOSE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IN AND NEAR WOODED AREAS. ALSO...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE FORMING ALSO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD IGNITE A FIRE. OTHER THAN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS...THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
ACTIVATION OF THE SPOTTER NETWORK IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.