Severe Thunderstorm Warning 307, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2000

WIND ANALYSIS AND DEWPOINTS SHOWS THE FRONT VERY NEAR THE FL/GA
BORDER. RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST FROM FLAGLER TO GLYNN CO. VWP PROFILE INDICATING VEERING WINDS
FROM NE WINDS 15-20 KT AT 1 KFT AND SE WINDS 20 KT NEAR 4 KFT.

FORECAST...MESO-ETA INDICATES STRONG LIFT THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS NE
FL AND PORTIONS OF COASTAL SE GA. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE BY LATE
THU AS TO HOW FAR THE FRONT WILL MOVE S. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO N FL. THE AVN PUSHES IT
FARTHER S INTO CENTRAL FL WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAST AS I THINK
AVN IS OVERDEVELOPING LOW CENTER NEAR 31N75W. WILL THEREFORE BACK
OFF A LITTLE ON THE AVN/S FRONTAL POSITION. AT UPPER LEVELS...UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE GULF WILL SHIFT WWD WHILE RIDGING MOVES FROM THE
N AND W...ALLOWING WINDS TO REMAIN S-SE IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER.
WILL PUT IN HIGH POPS OVER NE FL AND COASTAL GA TONIGHT AND THU AND
40-50 CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THU NIGHT AND FRI ON
ONSHORE CONVERGENT FLOW. WILL UNDERCUT FWC GUIDANCE A FEW DEGREES.

MARINE...NE WIND OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SE GA WATERS WITH NE 29 KT
SEAS 9 FT AT THE R2 TOWER. SAUF1 AT E16G20KT. WILL LEAN TOWARD AVN
MODEL DURING THE FIRST PD AND BLEND GUIDANCE REMAINDER PERIODS.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION MLB.

AMG 70/81/71/85 4644
SSI 75/80/75/81 6645
JAX 71/82/73/86 5645
GNV 72/85/71/87 5635 02

.JAX...
.FL...SCA FERNANDINA BCH TO FLAGLER BCH
.GA...SCA ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BCH
      FLOOD WATCH GAZ132-133-149-162-163 UNTIL 5 PM

ARS

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-062300-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1215 PM EDT WED SEP 6 2000

...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GEORGIA AREA UNTIL 5 PM...
...CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES TODAY...

LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A COLD FRONT NEAR THE FLORIDA
GEORGIA LINE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AMOUNTS OVER TWO INCHES LIKELY IN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AT 15 MPH.
IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES
TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST FLORIDA. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT THIS AFTERNOON
AND LEAVE WEATHER RADIO ALERT FEATURES ACTIVE.

MORE PERSISTENT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE ALAPAHA RIVER VALLEY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...AND A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR
THIS AREA. RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR CONTINUED
UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. LOCATIONS FROM WILLACOOCHEE TO
HAZLEHURST AND SNIPESVILLE HAVE HAD VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST TWO
DAYS. THESE AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...SKYWARN
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEACHES DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHEAST WINDS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...INCLUDING TORNADO...FLOODING AND RIP
CURRENT SAFETY TIPS...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

CARROLL