Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2000

CURRENTLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RADAR SHOW E COAST SEA
BREEZE MOVING INLAND S OF ABOUT PALM VALLEY. WINDS AT SGJ HAVE
TURNED MORE SE DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS OVER MOST OF
THE AREA FORCING SOME TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO 90S. A FEW REPORTS OF
HZ ACROSS SE GA AND VIS LOWERING JUST A LITTLE AROUND GNV. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD CU FIELD FORMING FROM BRUNSWICK SW TOWARD
GNV. IN ADDITION...SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED WEAK N-S TROUGHING OVER
ERN GA TO JUST E OF GNV. GOOD INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO OCCUR AND
EXPECT SCT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY AROUND THE
TROUGH AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...THEN LATER THIS EVENING INLAND
AREAS.

FORECAST...MODELS CONTINUE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS NEXT 2 DAYS WRT TO
SFC DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FL E COAST AND HANDLING OF UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES. WITH SUCH A DISPARITY IN FORECAST GUIDANCE WILL LEAN
TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF THE SFC FEATURES AND POPS. WEAK SFC TROUGH
OVER INLAND AREAS EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN WDLY
SCT CONVECTION AT LEAST IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS. AVN AND ETA
DEVELOP A SUBSTANTIAL 700 MB OMEGA BULLSEYE OVER SE GA AND N FL LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THEY HAVE ALSO BACK OFF A LITTLE IN THIS LATEST RUN.
ON TUE...FAIRLY SIMILAR PWATER AMOUNTS AS TODAY WITH GREATEST
MOISTURE TO THE S. AFTN TEMPS WILL NOT BE AS HOT AND SO POP COVERAGE
MAY BE A LITTLE LOWER...PARTICULARLY FOR INTERIOR SE GA. FOR TUE
NIGHT AND WED...MORE AFFECTS FROM SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE FL E
COAST WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BUT TEMPS AGAIN NOT
REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S.

MARINE...SFC WIND FLOW WITH ESTIMATES NOW OF AT LEAST 15 KT NEAR THE
SYSTEM TO THE SE OF THE FA AND CAN SEE THE POTENTIAL OF STRONGER
WINDS BY TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED. LOOKING AT CURRENT OBS...APPEARS
THE AVN IS A LITTLE BETTER AT THE 18Z FCST. A SHIP ABOUT 50 NM E OF
FLAGLER BEACH IS REPORTING ENE 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 3-4 FT. WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE AVN SOLUTION BUT HAVE WINDS MUCH WEAKER.

FIRE WX...FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE WATCH UP FOR TUE BASED ON POSSIBLY
HIGH DISPERSION VALUES NEAR 75 FROM HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING TRANSPORT WINDS.

THU THRU SAT...DEEP MOISTURE PROGGED FOR THU THRU SAT. UPPER LEVEL
LOW EXPECTED TO BE OVER SRN AL/GA AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NW. THUS
WILL CONTINUE CHANCE OF RAIN...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THU AND FRI.
PREFER NOT TO TIME PRECIP WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND. TEMPS SHOULD BE
AT OR BELOW CLIMO.

THANKS CHS AND TLH FOR COORD.

AMG 71/92/71/88 2223
SSI 74/86/74/85 3334
JAX 73/91/72/89 2334
GNV 71/90H/70/88 2434 02

.JAX...
.FL...FIRE WX WATCH TUE AFTN EXCEPT INTERIOR COUNTIES.
.GA...FIRE WX WATCH TUE AFTN

ARS

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-282000-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT MON AUG 28 2000

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TRIGGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE STORMS WILL BE LOW...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTH AND BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.  HOWEVER MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY AND DRY
AT MOST LOCATIONS.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER AND MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 100 TO 105 RANGE.

TUESDAY...POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAHAMA AREA LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MAY BRING PROGRESSIVELY MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA OVER
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AND STRONGER COASTAL WIND CONDITIONS.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

ZIBURA