Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
310 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2000

EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MARION COUNTY HAS MOVED
SOUTHEAST. CURRENTLY THUNDERSTORMS ARE BUILDING OVER GA AND MOVING
INTO SUWANNEE VALLEY. ACTIVITY LASTED PAST 10PM LAST NIGHT. WITH
PROXIMITY OF FRONT...OTHER BOUNDARIES...AND ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...
WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT.

FORECAST...MID/UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF
LOW DIVES TO THE VA COAST LATE SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH
GA ON SATURDAY AND STALL OVER THE REGION. GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
WILL BE PUMPED ACROSS FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AND AFFECTING
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ETA/AVN PUTS BULLS-EYE OF UPPER LVL
DIVERGENCE AND STRONG OMEGA ACROSS CENTRAL FL DURING SAME TIME
PERIOD. WILL BUMP POPS TO LIKELY FOR MARION...PUTNAM...FLAGLER COS
ON SATURDAY...THEN 40 PERCENT POPS FOR NORTHERN FL AND 20 PERCENT
FOR GA.

MARINE...WINDS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE WATERS AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE
HIGHER SEAS OFFSHORE  WILL DIVIDE THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND HOIST A
SCEC FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR THE REGION. WILL KEEP NEAR SHORE
JUST BELOW SCEC CRITERIA.

EXTENDED...DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER GA ON MONDAY BEHIND THE WEAKENED
FRONT THAT IS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE RETURNS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FA LATE MONDAY.

THANKS FOR COORD TBW.

PRELIM...
AMG 71/89/65/90 422-
SSI 73/85/69/87 422-
JAX 75/90/69/90 3422
GNV 73/88/68/88 3422 28

.JAX..
.FL...NONE
.GA...NONE

TRABERT

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-112000-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2000

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO NORTHEAST FLORIDA SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN JUST INLAND FROM
THE GULF COAST BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
STEERING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WEST AND INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD FOCUS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF DEADLY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS...AND PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN. A COUPLE OF STORMS
MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
THREATS.

WITH WEST WINDS...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 90S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN AT THE BEACHES. WITH THE HUMIDITY COMBINED
A FEW AREAS WILL SEE THE HEAT INDEX CLOSE TO 105 DEGREES.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE# NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAX.

DEESE