Severe Thunderstorm Warning 250, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2000

A SMALL SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER EASTERN GA AS SEEN IN THE
SUBSIDENCE ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOP. THE SEA BREEZE IS BEGINNING
SOUTH OF JAX BUT IS SUPPRESSED TO THE NORTH. MOST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF SGJ TO GNV THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECAST...PREFER ETA SINCE IT INITIALIZES WITH TD#4 AND FOLLOWS THE
NHC TRACK. IT ALSO SHOWS THE BUBBLE HIGH NEAR SAV AT 18Z. THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS A STORM SYSTEM DROPS OUT
OF CANADA TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA FRI AND INTO SOUTH GA SAT AFTERNOON.
STRONGEST VORTICITY MOVES THRU SAT AFTERNOON BUT BY THAT TIME THE
MEAN RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 60 PERCENT. WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS
ON FRI...CHANCE FRI NIGHT. ON SAT...RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE GA TO
GOOD CHANCE SOUTHERN COS.

EXTENDED...A CUTOFF LOW FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH.
AS THE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST...THE LOW RETROGRADES ALONG THE
GULF COAST. A FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY ENHANCING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

MARINE...LATEST TRACK OF TD#4 KEEPS IT FARTHER AWAY FROM THE WATERS.
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AT BUOY 08 AND WINDS ARE LESS THAN 10 KT
EVERYWHERE AT 2 PM. WILL DROP THE CAUTIONARY STATEMENT AND BACK OFF
ON WINDS/SEAS SLIGHTLY.

THANKS FOR COORD TLH...MLB.

PRELIM
AMG 73/9(2/71/90 1422
SSI 75/91/73/87 1433
JAX 73/94/73/90 1433
GNV 70/93/71/88 2435 28

.JAX..
.FL...NONE
.GA...NONE

TRABERT