Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2000

CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING INLAND OVER THE SUWANNEE
VALLEY AND SOME SHOWERS ARE ERUPTING ALONG THE ECSB. WV IMAGERY
SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS PROGGED OVER THE FCST AREA...ROUGHLY NORTH OF
GNV TO SGJ...WHERE MOST OF TODAY'S ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

MODELS AGREE THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST BY 00Z SUNDAY.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND
AFFECT THE FA. ON FRIDAY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES WITH STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER SE GA AND NORTHERN FL COUNTIES. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS AND A CHANCE TO THE SOUTH. ON SATURDAY A VORT LOBE
SLIDES INTO NORTH FL AND DRYING FOLLOWS. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS TO
THE SOUTH.

EXTENDED...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
AND A RIDGE BRIDGES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US. WITH THE CESSATION
OF THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...DEEP MOISTURE SUPPLY IS REMOVED. THE FA
WILL RETURN TO AOB CLIMO POPS AND AOA CLIMO TEMPS.

MARINE...A S TO SW FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BOTH
AVN/NGM SHOW A SURGE IN WINDS DURING THE THIRD PERIOD. THINK THIS
IS REALISTIC BUT WILL KEEP BELOW SCEC CRITERIA.

PRELIM
AMG 71/89/72/91 4634
SSI 74/86/74/88 4634
JAX 72/90/73/92 46N35
GNV 71/89/72/90 3535 28

.JAX..
.FL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.

TRABERT

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-032100-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2000

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...

AFTERNOON HEATING...ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...
AND THE FORMATION OF BOTH WEST AND EAST COAST SEABREEZES WILL RESULT
IN THE ERUPTION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. STEERING WINDS ARE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY AND FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE OF A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF RAINFALL NEAR THE COAST AND BEACHES.

THE STORMS WILL FIRST FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST SEABREEZE NEAR THE
INTRACOASTAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY SPREAD TO JUST WEST OF THE
ST JOHNS RIVER BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON. ALSO...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING INLAND FROM THE GULF WILL SPREAD
NORTHEAST TO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DURING THE EARLY EVENING...THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST ESPECIALLY FROM ST AUGUSTINE
BEACH TO ST SIMONS ISLAND.

THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2 TO 3 INCHES. A
COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

MARINE INTERESTS ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER...THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY
...AND NEARBY ATLANTIC SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER
AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE STORMS
MAY PRODUCE WATER SPOUTS.

DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER...STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE
ON THE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.

PETERSON

STEERING WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THE STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST.  HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE RESULT WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING
AROUND 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.  YOU CAN ALSO
EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH THESE STORMS.  FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT STORM
SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE, FL
311 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0415 PM    HOMELAND                  GA   WIND DAMAGE
08/02/00   CHARLTON                       EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                          REPORTED ROOF DAMAGE TO
                                          TRAVEL INN MOTEL. TREE
                                          TOPPLED ONTO MOBILE HOME.
                                          TWO MOBILE STORAGE UNITS
                                          ROLLED AND DESTROYED. ROOF
                                          DAMAGE TO VFW BUILDING.
                                          AWNING OF SERVICE STATION
                                          DAMAGED. NUMEROUS TREES AND
                                          LARGE LIMBS DOWN THROUGHOUT
                                          CITY.

ECZ