Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
230 PM EST SUN MAR 26 2000

BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE OLD TIMES AS CONVECTION IS FIRING OVER THE BIG
BEND AND THEN ALONG THE FL-GA STATE LINE TO THE SWAMP. MESO-ETA HAS
DONE A GOOD JOB IN PICKING THIS AREA OUT AS THE MAIN CONVECTIVE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FREQ CLOUD TO GROUND LTG STRIKES FROM THE
STORMS CURRENTLY OVER MADISON/LAFAYETTE COUNTIES MAY NOT TURN OUT TO
BE BENEFICIAL AS THEY APPROACH THE SUWANNEE VALLEY. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NGM A BIT FURTHER S WRT FRONTAL
POSITION. THE FRONT WILL RETURN N AS A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER
AN H5 SHRTWV/VORT CENTER WILL MOVE OVER THE FA OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD
KEEP THE CONVECTION FIRED UP TO AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO OVER THE
BALANCE OF N FLA.

LOOKS LIKE WE GET A SHORT BREAK TOMORROW MORNING AS NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FA TOMORROW AFTN. SPC HAS PLACED THE REGION IN
A SLGT RISK AREA AND ALTHOUGH IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A CLASSIC SEVERE
WX SITUATION ENOUGH INGREDIENTS ARE AVAILABLE TO GET A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN HERE TMRW AFTN & EVE. WILL INCLUDE A FEW
STRONG TSTMS IN THE PACKAGE AND LET FUTURE SHIFTS TAKE IT FROM THERE.
ITS GOING TO GET BREEZY TMRW WITH GUSTY 15-20 MPH SWLY WINDS. AVN
GUID IS A BIT COOLER AND WETTER THAN NGM AND WILL LEAN TWD THE NGM
GUID FOR TMRW'S HIGH TEMPS. OTHERWISE...ITS A TOSS UP BETWEEN THE
TWO.

EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE FA WED AND THU WITH THE
NEXT SHOT AT SOME PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE GA PORTIONS THU NIGHT AND
FRI.

MARINE...MODELS SEEM TO DOING A GOOD JOB OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
TODAY WITH ETA/AVN THE PREFERRED MODELS THIS RUN. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWEST 10-15 KNOTS TONIGHT WITH A LIMITED FETCH AREA. GRAYS REEF
COMBINED SEAS ARE 3 FT RIGHT NOW AND WE'VE GOT 2-3 FEET RIGHT
OUTSIDE THE JETTIES. ALL OF THE MODELS CRANK UP THE WINDS TOMORROW
WITH NGM ACTUALLY GOING UP TO GALE OVER MOST OF THE AREA. AM NOT
BUYING INTO THAT JUST YET...BUT WILL GO WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING
W-SW WINDS REACHING SCA CONDITIONS BY MON AFTN. WILL GO WITH THE AVN
GUID FOR A MORE GRADUAL DECREASE IN WINDS & SEAS ON MON NIGHT.

PRELIM

AMG 59/77/51/70 5O630
SSI 60/78/52/66 5630
JAX 60/79/49/70 5530
GNV 60/78/49/71 5530 05

.JAX...
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

SANDRIK

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-251830-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1130 AM EST SUN MAR 26 2000

A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER THE EASTERN COAST
OF THE CAROLINAS...CENTRAL GEORGIA AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT.

ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA
THEREFORE ACTIVATION OF THE SPOTTER NETWORK IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSO=NVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.

MOBBS