Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
220 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2000

CURRENTLY...AT 1 PM EDT WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A 5H VORT CENTER
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA. THE
MODELS DID A FAIR JOB OF INITIALIZING WITH THE ETA AND NGM SEEMING TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE SO WILL USE THOSE MODELS FOR THIS PACKAGE.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT THE 925 MB
LEVEL DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIPITABLE WATER
HOLDING FIRM FROM AROUND 1 AND 1/2 INCHES TO AROUND 1 AND 3/4 INCHES
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS WITH LIS RANGING FROM -5 TO -7...AND CAPES
RANGING FROM 2000 J/KG TO 3000 J/KG. SO EXPECT MUCH OF THE SAME
THROUGH MONDAY WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED MAINLY OVER INLAND ZONES.
EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 70...EXCEPT LOWER AND MID 70S NEAR THE COAST
BOTH DAYS. FWC NUMBERS LOOKS GOOD FOR POPS AND TEMPERATURES SO WILL
USE THEM WIHTH SOME MODIFICATION.

PRELIM
AMG 70/93/70/90 2424
SSI 74/87/74/87 1424
JAX 71/94/73/93 2424
GNV 70/92/69/92 2524 33

.JAX..
.FL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-292000-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT SAT JUL 29 2000

AFTERNOON HEATING AND SEABREEZES...ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING. DUE TO LIGHT STEERING
WINDS...SEABREEZES FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS ARE
EXPECTED TO PENETRATE INLAND DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF THE
INTRACOASTAL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD INLAND DURING THE MID
AND LATE AFTERNOON. THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN
U.S. 301 AND INTERSTATE 75 IN NORTH FLORIDA AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 95
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS
TODAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF AROUND 2 INCHES IS LIKELY IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.

ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.