Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
200 PM EDT FRI JUL 28 2000

TONIGHT...LOOKS LIKE MESO-ETA ONCE AGAIN HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
LOCAL SITUATION...WITH RUC OVERDOING THE AFTN CONVECTION AND
DEVELOPING IT A BIT TOO EARLY. MESO-ETA IS INDICATING SLOW PROGRESS
OF THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE AND THATS EXACTLY WHAT IM SEEING ON VSBL
SAT IMAGERY & RADAR. ALSO A CONVERGENT BAND WAS INDICATED BY THE
MODEL FROM OZR/DHN-THE BIG BEND TO THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AND CAN SEE A
BOUNDARY ON THE KTLH RADAR IN ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA...WITH SOME
CONVECTION FORMING ON IT IN WRN SUWANNEE COUNTY.

EXPECT THE ATLC SEA BREEZE TO ONLY MAKE TO US 301 BY 5 PM AS AN H5
VORT CENTER MOVES OVER THE FA. THE CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR WILL
BE LATE TO POP WITH TEH MAIN DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 4-8 PM FROM THE
OCALA NATIONAL FOREST THROUGH STARKE/LAKE BUTLER AND THEN ACROSS THE
OSCEOLA NATIONAL FOREST INTO THE SWAMP AND NW TO PEARSON GA. THAT
COMPLEX SHOULD COLLAPSE BETWEEN 8-11 PM SENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN
ALL DIRECTIONS. CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO BE LATE TO DIMINISH (BETWEEN
11 PM-2 AM) AS THE VORT CENTER EVENTUALLY SHEARS OUT ALONG THE FL
EAST COAST. WILL INCREASE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF EVE PCPN TO A CHANCE
(40 PCNT) FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES S OF AYS. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE
AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

SAT...AVN DEVELOPS A LOW OVER SW FL AND MOVES IT RAPIDLY ALONG THE
FL E COAST AND IS STRONGLY SUSPECT. WILL TOSS OUT AVN AND STICK
CLOSER TO ETA/MESO-ETA WHICH KEEP THE BULK OF THE DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE
OFF THE E COAST FROM DAB NWD. MESO-ETA DEVELOPS SEA BREEZE TYPE
CONVECTION ALONG THE FL-GA STATE LINE FROM THE SWAMP W TO VAD/VLD
LATE IN THE AFTN/EVE. WILL AGAIN GO WITH A 40 PCNT POPS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LESSER POPS FOR THE ATLC COASTAL COUNTIES.

SAT NIGHT...AVN STILL CAUGHT UP IN THAT LOW AND ALSO DONT LIKE AVN
HANDLING OF A 2ND H5 VORT CENTER THAT IT SITS OVER THE FA. THEREFORE
AVN ONCE AGAIN DISCOUNTED AND BASED ON THE OTHER MODELS IT LOOKS LIKE
ANOTHER TYPICAL SUMMERTIME NIGHT...WITH PCPN ENDING ARND MIDNIGHT.

SUN...THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE MOISTENS UP AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE SWRLY. EXPECT GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE...SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPS AND
WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE POPS TO 50 PCNT FOR MOST AREAS.

EXTENDED...WITH THE RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA IT LOOKS LIKE
WELL CONTINUE WITH CLIMO CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

MARINE...WELL ONCE AGAIN LIKE MESO-ETA WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE. CERTAINLY HAS BEEN THE
PATTERN FOR THE PAST TWO DAYS AND THE MODEL HAS NAILED IT EACH DAY.
NGM WINDS ARE A BIT TOO STRONG AND THAT LOW AVN LIKES IS A PROBLEM
WITH IT. WILL GO WITH ETA/MESO-ETA AND NO HEADLINES FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

PRELIM

AMG 70/92/71/90 4435
SSI 74/87/75/86 2425
JAX 72/91/72/90 2425
GNV 71/92/71/89 4435 05

.JAX..
.FL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.

SANDRIK