Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
240 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2000

A CHECK OF THE RADAR INDICATING THUNDERSTORMS FORMING OUT NEAR THE
SUWANNEE VALLEY...NEAR THE SEABREEZE FRONT...AND MOVING EAST.
WITH THE STEERING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS
TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WITH WEAKER UPPER DYNAMICS TODAY AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR ALOFT...LESS COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BUT STILL A FEW STRONG STORMS
WHERE SEABREEZES MERGE. EXPECT A FEW STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY
EVE ESP NEAR EAST COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER
THE AREA WITH A WEAK CIRCULATION OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS HAS
CAUSED WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH SPEEDS
AT 12 KNOTS AT GRAYS REEF PAST HOUR. WITH MESO-ETA/ETA PROGGING SYSTEM
TO MOVE NE WILL START WINDS OFF N AND NE BUT SWITCH INTO THE SE OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH ONSHORE WIND
NEAR COAST THURSDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT BEGINNING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA...AND WITH STEERING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...WILL GO
WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
POPS OF 30 TO 40 PCT IN FL AND 20 TO 30 PCT GA. WEEKEND...SHORT WAVE
ENERGY WEAKENS THE UPPER RIDGE BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY STAYS WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN ATLANTIC NORTH OF BERMUDA WITH A LOW
LEVEL SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST FLOW. WENT WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.

AMG 70/91/71/91 2224
SSI 72/88/73/88 3334
JAX 70/91/71/91 3334
GNV 69/91/70/90 3434 08

.JAX..
.FL...NONE.
.GA...NONE.

PETERSON

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-261630-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2000

THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...DRAPED OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON SPREADING NORTH AND EAST...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
NEAR THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

DUE TO SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE...
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS COVERAGE AND SEVERITY THAN
ON TUESDAY BUT STILL COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
AND POSSIBLE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY TOTAL BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES WHICH MAY
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND THOSE WITH POOR
DRAINAGE.

MARINE INTERESTS...ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL TO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC...SHOULD BE ON THE ALERT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY RAIN...AND POSSIBLY WATER SPOUTS.

ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON...THEY ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO MEET SEVERE CRITERIA...THEREFORE THE ACTIVATION OF
THE SPOTTER NETWORK IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.

PETERSON