Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
300 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2000

ANOTHER HOT ONE...AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED WITH THE HEAT ADVISORY...WITH
THE TEMPERATURE AT JAX AT 102 AND CLIMBING. HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN IN
THE 110 TO 115 DEGREE RANGE ALL AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING UP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY JUST SOUTH OF JAX...ALSO STORMS FIRING
UP IN NORTH FLORIDA FORM GULF COAST SEABREEZE. NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE
FORM THE STORMS BUT THEY COULD BE SEVERE. HAVE PUT THE POPS AT 20 PCT
IN FLORIDA AND LESS THAN 20 IN GEORGIA. WILL COVER THE THE STORMS IN
NOWCASTS.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
WITH WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING TO NEAR THE FLORIDA GEORGIA BORDER.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEHIND FRONT WITH DEWPT TEMPS NOTED IN THE 60S
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA (BUT WITH TEMPS STILL NEAR 100 THERE). FORECAST...
WILL NOT MOVE FRONT MUCH FROM ITS POSITION AND WILL WASH IT OUT FRIDAY.
ON FRIDAY MODELS MOVE WEAK 850-700 MB SHORT WAVE INTO THE AREA BY LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HAVE RAISED
POPS AND LOWERED TEMPS. MARINE...WINDS HAVE GRAYS REEF HAVE DECREASED
AND HAVE INCREASED AT THE ST AUGUSTINE PIER. WILL CONTINUE NORTH SOUTH
BREAKUP WITH WINDS GENERALLY SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST NO HIGHER THAN 15 KNOTS.

AMG 73/98/72/95 1334
SSI 76/95/75/93 1334
JAX 76/98/75/96 2324
GNV 76/97/74/95 2424 08

.JAX......
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

PETERSON