Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
250 PM EST SUN FEB 27 2000

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE SIGNATURE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT. ACTIVITY IS MOVING INTO CENTRAL AND
WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. LINE OF SHRA/TSRA MOVING THROUGH WARE AND
CHARLTON COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. LATEST INDICATIONS SHOW CAPES STILL
FAIRLY LOW WITH LI/S NEAR -2 TO -3. COLD FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE
FROM GVL-ABY-AQQ.

FORECAST...CONVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT SHOULD WORK ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY
00Z TONIGHT AND S OF THE CWA BY 03Z. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL WEAKEN BY 00Z BUT ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE PRODUCED
AS FRONT NEARS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TONIGHT. AS
FOR MODELS...AVN SEEMS BIT TOO SLOW WITH DYNAMICS AND PRECIP AND
PREFER NGM/ETA SOLUTIONS. MAY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TONIGHT IN THE
N AND CHANCE AROUND SE PART OF CWA...I.E. MARION-PUTNAM-FLAGLER
COUNTIES AND INDICATE CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. MODELS SIMILAR IN
HANDLING HIGH PRES RIDGE MOVING FROM MS VALLEY TONIGHT TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TUESDAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO GET MODIFICATION OF AIR MASS
ON TUESDAY AS HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY TUE NIGHT RESULTING IN
VEERING BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM N TO E. GUIDANCE TEMPS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL BLEND AND/OR MAKE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS.

MARINE...CURRENT WINDS SHOW MOSTLY 10 KT WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT.
WINDS SLOWLY PICKING UP AT SAUF1. PREFRONTAL LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH STRONGER WINDS OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THEREFORE
MAY SPLIT ZONES NEAR SHORE AND OFFSHORE. PREFER ETA MODEL PROGS DUE
TO BETTER INITIAL CONDITIONS. WILL INDICATE SCEC CONDITIONS MONDAY.

PRELIM...
AMG 47/66/39/74 2000
SSI 51/66/47/67 4000
JAX 51/68/43/74 4000
GNV 54/69/43/75 4000 02

.JAX...
GA...FIRE WX WATCH MON AFTN GAZ150-164
FL...FIRE WX WATCH MON AFTN FLZ020>023-030-031-035

ARS

AMZ435-450-452-454-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-272000-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1145 AM EST SUN FEB 27 2000

A COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES THROUGH WESTERN GEORGIA...THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PASS
OVER THE LOCAL REGION THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES EAST. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL POSSIBLY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SUWANNEE
RIVER VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS OF AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STRONGER
STORMS.

DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SKIES
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VI]SIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.