Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Jacksonville, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
130 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000

ZONES...WENT WITH A COMBO OF THE AVN/ETA FORECAST FOR THIS PACKAGE
AND DONT REALLY LIKE THE NGM HANDLING OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE PAST 00
UTC THIS EVE. BOTH ETA/AVN PUSH THE MAIN DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH
THIS AFTN...WHICH IS WHAT I THINK I AM CURRENTLY SEEING WRT THIS
AFTNS THE AREAS OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LOOKING AT
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPR SHEAR ZONE ON
WV IMAGERY...I LIKE THE IDEA THAT AVN HAS OF A MSTR SURGE COMING OUT
OF APALACHEE BAY LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TMRW FOR THE SRN MOST COS.
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP LOOKS PROMISING...WITH A W-SW SYNOPTIC FLOW AND
ITS BEEN A WHILE SINCE WEVE SEEN THIS TYPE OF SURGE. MAYBE ITS
WISHFUL THINKING...BUT I THINK WERE DUE (THIS IS THE HUNCH PART OF
THE JOB SO...DONT ASK ME TO EXPLAIN WHY OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT I
LIKE THE AVN RUN BETTER). WILL HOLD POPS HIGHER FOR ST. JOHNS...
PUTNAM...ALACHUA...GILCHRIST AND MARION COUNTIES OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW (WILL USE AVN DAB GUID NUMBERS FOR POPS). THINK NGM BRINGS
TOO MUCH MSTR TOO FAR N TMRW SO MAY UNDERCUT THE POPS OVER THE SWAMP
AND XTRM SERN GA.

MARINE...DONT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE MARINE
PACKAGE AS THE RIDGE ORIENTATION KEEPS A S TO SW SFC FLOW OVER THE
AREA.

AMG 71/93/70/91 1324
SSI 73/87/72/86 2324
JAX 72/93/72/92 3535
GNV 72/88/71/89 4746 05

.JAX...
.GA...NONE.
.FL...NONE.

SANDRIK

FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-231630-

NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
1200 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2000

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN COMBINATION OF A MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WILL HELP TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE IN NORTHEAST FLORIDA BUT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
THREATS. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A HALF
TO ONE INCH BUT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE AS MUCH AS
2 TO 3 INCHES. ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.NWSJAX.NOAA.GOV.

PETERSON