Severe Thunderstorm Warning 532, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
310 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2000

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ITS GRIP ON THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH OVER THE REGION AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER THE CWFA. ON FRIDAY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROP DIGS INTO THE SOUTH STATES AND PUSHES A SURFACE
TROF/FRONT THROUGH THE CWFA BY EARLY SAT MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS REMAIN HIGH 1.5 TO 2.00 INCH. THE COMBINATION OF THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT, THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CWFA.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER NORTH SECTIONS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. BY
SATURDAY MORNING WOULD EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO HAVE MOVE NEARLY
SOUTH OUT OF OUR CWFA.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL FROM THE MID 90S T0 NEAR 100 IN SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. WILL NOT ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT
BE HIGH ENOUGH. WILL MENTION HEAT INDICES IN ALL SECTIONS.

MOS POPS ARE TOO LOW ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY. WILL BUMP THEM UP IN
MOST LOCATIONS.

QPF DISCUSSION FOR 24 HRS ENDING AT 12Z FRI:  WITH PRECIP WATER
VALUES RUNNING FROM 1.5" TO ABOUT 2.0" IN PROGS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND ENOUGH LIFT PLACE OVER CWFA FOR SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS. EXPECT
BEST MOISTURE/PRECIP OVER SERN ZONES...THOUGH AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN .25 INCH. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP DEVELOPS IN
SECOND 24-HR PERIOD.

EXTENDED DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER. NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BcE ON MONDAY.

JAN 099/073 095/068 090 325-
MEI 099/074 095/068 090 435-

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

02

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
110400-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO THIRD PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 10 2000

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY.
DAYTIME HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME SMALL
HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER EXTREME NORTH MISSISSIPPI LATE TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY AND PROVIDE ADDED FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES AN EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
110400-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CDT THU AUG 10 2000

A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

WITH THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
IN THE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
PARTICULARLY OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI. DAMAGING WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. TORRENTIAL RAIN...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES AN EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.