Severe Thunderstorm Warning 431, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2000

WIDESPREAD DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN AS EXPECTED TODAY
/MAYBE EVEN A TAD MORE THAN EXPECTED/ AND HAS ALSO SUPPRESSED
CONVECTION. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS FINALLY WINNING OUT IN THE
DELTA WHERE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS SHREDDING OUT...TEMPS ARE
SKYROCKETING...AND SMALL CUMULUS ARE BEGINNING TO POP. EXPECT ANY
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN EITHER IN THE DELTA OR IN THE
MERIDIAN TO BROOKHAVEN CORRIDOR WHERE A CLEAR SLOT HAS DEVELOPED.

CLOUDS WILL BE THE KEY FOR TEMP FORECASTING. MID LEVEL RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND VERTICAL MOTION FORECASTS DISAGREE AMONG THE DIFFERENT
MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. BASIC PATTERN SEEMS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE PLAINS...WEAKEN IN THE MORNING...AND THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS COME OVER OUR AREA BY THE NEXT DAY. MODELS AGREE
SOMEWHAT ON FEWER CLOUDS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY. THEREFORE...WILL FORECAST GRADUALLY RISING AFTERNOON HIGHS
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. AVN MODEL SUGGESTS MORE CLOUDINESS ON FRIDAY
SO WILL TREND MAXES BACK DOWN THEN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A THROW
OF THE DICE...AS ANY AFTERNOON STORMS WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE IMMEDIATE AREA.

SPEAKING OF AFTERNOON STORMS...HAVING A HARD TIME FINDING A LOW
LEVEL FOCUS THAT THE MODELS CAN RESOLVE. BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MS
TODAY IS PROGGED TO RETREAT EASTWARD IN SLOWLY INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY FLOW. EXPECT THAT LOW LEVEL FOCI WILL BE LEFTOVER OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES
ALONG CLOUD EDGES. CANNOT RELIABLY PREDICT LOCATIONS OF THESE
FEATURES A DAY OR TWO AHEAD OF TIME...SO WILL TURN TO UPPER LEVEL
TEMPS FOR HELP. COLDEST TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWFA...AND OVER THE NORTHERN CWFA ON THURSDAY...SO WILL
GO WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS AND SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE.

LAST...BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST...FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE HEAT
ADVISORY PROBLEM. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE AGAIN A SLAM
DUNK...WITH THE OVERNIGHT LOWS BEING THE ISSUE. HIGHEST DEWPOINTS
THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN POOLED IN THE DELTA...AND MODELS CONTINUE THIS
TREND...SO FEEL THAT HEAT ADVISORY IS STILL A GOOD IDEA. WILL ONLY
EXTEND IT FOR ONE DAY SO NEXT SHIFTS CAN HAVE MORE LEEWAY.

QPF DISCUSSION...NO DISTINCT FOCUSING AGENT NOTED TO PINPOINT
LOCATION OF CONVECTION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MODELS SHIFTING
INSTABILITY AXIS SLIGHTLY EWD BY WED AFTERNOON BUT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELD PERSISTING AND SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY PRESENT TO
MAINTAIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM THREAT CENTRAL AND SRN AREAS. WILL
BRUSH SRN TIER WITH FEW HUNDRETHS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT
AND ANOTHER FEW HUNDRETHS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION CENTRAL AND SOUTH
WED.

EXTENDED...MRF AND NOGAPS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED IN THE DETAILS...BUT THE
GENERAL TREND IS STILL FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS...LOWERING TEMPS...AND
INCREASING POPS. TREND IN CURRENT EXTENDED LOOKS FINE AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH IT.

JAN 074/098 073/100 121
MEI 070/10H0 069/102 121

.JAN...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ZONES 074-075.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ZONES 007>009-015-016.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ZONES 018-019-025-034>036-
     040>042-047.
06