Severe Thunderstorm Warning 311, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
330 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE CWFA ALL
MORNING. EARLIER CONVECTION TENDED WEAKEN AS IT MOVED EASTWARD INTO
MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE AIRMASS
BECOMING MORE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. WITH REGARDS TO
MODELS...THE AVN APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS WILL BE THE MODEL OF
CHOICE.

THE AVN SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. THE TIMING ON THE WAVES WILL BE TRICKY...AS CONVECTION
INITIATED A LOT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED. THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...CAPES WILL AVERAGE 1000-2500 J/KG. THE GOOD VEERING WIND
PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE UNIDIRECTIONAL MIDDAY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI EARLY MONDAY...DRAGGING THE
ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT 12Z MONDAY TO
EAST OF THE STATE BY 18Z MONDAY.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER EAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AS IT CONTINUES TO FILL. BY 48 HOURS/12Z TUESDAY
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE CWFA IN DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW.

SO FOR TONIGHT WITH THE GOOD CAPE AND A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
WILL GO WITH LIKELY TO CAT POPS IN MOST AREAS WITH THE MENTION OF
SEVERE...AS SOME OF THE EARLIER STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED HAIL
AND INDICATED GOOD ROTATION. FOR MONDAY...CONVECTION TAKES ON A MORE
SQUALL LINE STANCE AND SHOULD END FROM THE WEST MONDAY NIGHT.
AS STATED EARLIER...BY TUESDAY AM AREA WILL BE UNDER DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW.

QPF DISCUSSION: WITH PWS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH ACROSS THE CWFA...AGREE
WITH AVN PLACEMENT OF THE GREATER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTH.
THE STORMS ARE MOVING RATHER FAST...BUT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES
SO BASIN AVERAGES OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH WILL SUFFICE.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
NOGAPS INDICATING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE THE MRF SHOWS
AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MRF MODEL PROGS QUICK
MOISTURE RETURN...HOWEVER MRF MOS GIVES BELOW CLIMO POPS AND
TRENDING TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. WILL THEREFORE HOLD OFF ON THE RAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY.

PRELIM NUMBERS
JAN 061/070 050/073 049 752
MEI 061/072 051/071 049 863

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-008-015-240430-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1105 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 198 HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES AND PARISHES...

IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...

ASHLEY AND CHICOT.

IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...

MOREHOUSE...RICHLAND...WEST CARROLL.

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS MOVED EAST OF THESE COUNTIES AND
PARISHES.

THE REMAINING AREA OF TOzRNADO WATCH NUMBER 198 CONTINUES TO BE IN
EFFECT.

JANWRKLSR 000
TTAA00 KJAN DDHHMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1110 PM CDT SAT APR 22 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH/COUNTY LOCATION....

0350 PM    HATTIESBURG               MS   1 INCH HAIL
04/23/00   FORREST                        QUARTER HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          COUNTY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT 5S HATTIESBURG

1035 PM    MONTEREY                  LA   TORNADO
04/23/00   CONCORDIA                      PUBLIC REPORTED A TORNADO
                                          AND DIME HAIL 1S MONTEREY
                                          NEAR HWYS 129/565

1052 PM    VIDALIA                   LA   .75 INCH HAIL
04/23/00   CONCORDIA                      DIME HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          PUBLIC IN VIDALIA

1055 PM    NATCHEZ                   MS   .75 INCH HAIL
04/23/00   ADAMS                          ADAMS CO EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGMENT REPORTS DIME
                                          HAIL IN DOWNTOWN NATCHEZ

MSZ018-019-025-027-028-034>036-040>042-047-240515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1145 PM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 198 HAS BEEN CANCyELED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HAS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

JANWRKLSR 000
TTAA00 KJAN DDHHMM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1243 AM CDT SUN APR 23 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....PARISH/COUNTY LOCATION....

1135 PM    YAZOO CITY                MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/23/00   YAZOO                          POLICE DEPT REPORT TREES
                                          AND POWER LINES DOWN IN
                                          DOWNTOWN YAZOO CITY

1138 PM    KINGSTON                  MS   WIND DAMAGE
04/23/00   ADAMS                          TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
                                          IN THE KINGSTON VICINITY

1140 PM    MEADVILLE                 MS   .75 INCH HAIL
04/23/00   FRANKLIN                       DIME HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          MEADVILLE POLICE DEPT

1205 AM    FRANKLIN                  MS   .75 INCH HAIL
04/24/00                                  DIME HAIL REPORTED BY
                                          SPOTTERS JUST INSIDE
                                          THE FRANKLIN/LINCOLN
                                          COUNTY LINE

1224 AM    LINCOLN                   MS   .75 INCH HAIL
04/24/00                                  DIME HAIL REPORTED IN
                                          BOGUE CHITTO

LAZ024-026-MSZ060>062-240715-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
135 AM CDT MON APR 24 2000

THE REMAINDER OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 200 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY
SEVERE THUNDBERSTORM WATCH 202 FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. NO WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR ADAMS...FRANKLIN...OR LINCOLN COUNTIES IN
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS CATAHOULA OR CONCORDIA PARISHES IN
LOUISIANA.