Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO ADD PRELIM POPS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 PM CST SAT APR 1 2000

MODELS HAVE HAD GOOD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. FORECAST ISSUES ARE EASY TO IDENTIFY. EVERYTHING POINTS TO  A
SUBSTANTIAL RAIN EVENT OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WITH AN
UNSEASONABLE SHOT OF COLD/COOL AIR COMING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WILL CONTINUE
TO PHASE...RESULTING IN A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH ACROSS THE NATIONS
MID SECTION. MESO SCALE FEATURES ARE HARDER TO IDENTIFY AND TIME.
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL STALL BEFORE REACHING THE WEST FRINGES OF OUR CWFA. THE WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS IS PROGGED TO
LIFT NORTH. WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN PLACE...ALL OF THE KEY
INGREDIENTS A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS IN PLACE. WE HAVE GOOD UPPER
LEVEL JET DYNAMICS...AND TROPICAL FEED IS EVIDENT FROM WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. PWS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES.

SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND HELP TRIGGER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH TWO
BOUNDARIES TO FOCUS ON WHICH BOUNDARY WILL BE THE DOMINANT ONE IS
ANOTHER ISSUE TO CONSIDER. THE CONVECTION GOING ACROSS THE WEST HALF
OF THE STATE IS THE FIRST OF MANY ROUNDS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDER
PLAY THE STRENGTH OF THE PIECES OF ENERGY COMING THROUGH THE AREA.
WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS FOR THE FIRST TWO PERIODS AT
LEAST AND THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT LEAST IN THE WEST.
WITH REGARD TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...IF ETA PF IS RIGHT NO PROBLEM
BUT IF THE AVN IS CORRECT...MIDNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE ACTION.
AT THIS TIME WILL AGREE WITH NCEP AND GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE TWO. GIVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES IN A 48 HOUR
TIME FRAME. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...TEMPS WILL NOT VARY WILL
GO WITH MID 60S FOR LOWS AND LOWER TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS.

IN THE EXTENDED...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOT IN PHASE. MRF STILL KEEPS THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHER MODELS HAVE OPTED TO DRY THINGS
OUT AND COOL THEM OFF. WITH A SHOT OF POLAR AIR COMING BELIEVE UPPER
TROUGH WILL HELP TO PUSH FRONT ON THROUGH REGION QUICKER THAN
PROGGED BY THE MRF SO WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND COOL WITH A WARMING
TREND PROGGED FOR THE FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

QPF DISCUSSION: AS STATED EARLIER WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
ETA AND AVN QPF AMOUNTS. FOR THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WILL GO WITH 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE AREA...TRENDING THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHWEST IN THE VICINITY OF STALLED BOUNDARY.

PRELIM NUMBER
JAN 065/073 064/075 055 778
MEI 064/074 065/072 055 567

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.