Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
145 PM EST SUN AUG 6 2000

17Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST
MISSOURI NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
A WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
CWA. LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF CLOUDS OVER
NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. AT 17Z...IWX
RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF LINE FROM LOGANSPORT TO
COLDWATER MICHIGAN MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING.

SPC HAS PUT PART OF NORTHERN INDIANA IN A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE REST OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO STRONG INSTABILITY AND
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN MOVING THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FA LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS JUST A LITTLE DRIER BUT NOT MUCH COOLER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY...BUT THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK MOVING SHORT
WAVES THROUGH THE FA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO FRIDAY WHEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

PREFERED WARMER FWC OVER FAN NUMBERS WITH LITTLE DRIER BUT NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE CHANGE IN AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
MORE SUN EXPECTED MONDAY. MISFWA AVAILABLE.

.IWX...NONE.

GLL

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-070000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1147 AM EST SUN AUG 6 2000

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN
INDIANA...SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO...

THE MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS SOUTH OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH BEND TO 25 MILES
NORTH OF FORT WAYNE. A WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. RESULTING SURFACE
HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABLIZE THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MODERATE RISK
AREA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI THROUGH EASTERN
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFT TO INITIATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL RADIO AND TV FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

GLL