Severe Thunderstorm Warning 242, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
240 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2000

FORECAST PROBLEMS INCLUDE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

19Z SATELLITE AND 88D PICS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF TSRA MOVING INTO
WEST CENTRAL IL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STRONGER STORMS.  AT THE SAME
TIME A DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION FROM SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ACROSS NORTHWEST IL INTO EAST CENTRAL IOWA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.
THIS ACTIVITY IS UNDER THE FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 80+ KT
JETSTREAM.

AIR OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS IS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE WITH LIS -5 TO
-10...CAPES PROGGED TO AROUND 4000...SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S AND TEMPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. EVERYTHING IN PLACE FOR
TSRA OVER MOST OF THE CFWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FLOW ALOFT INDICATES MAINLY SQUALL LINE
FORMATION WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL AS PER SPCS
DISCUSSION.

LEANING TOWARD ETA MODEL SOLUTION.  TIMED CROSS SECTIONS ACROSS THE
AREA INDICATING  DRYING AND STABILIZATION ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING
THE DAY MONDAY. WILL PROBABLY STILL KEEP A 30 PERCENT POP FOR
MONDAY. NEXT SHORT WAVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND
OF TSRA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CURRENTLY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWEST
COUNTIES OF CWA WITH SPC CONSIDERING ANOTHER ONE WILL BE NEEDED
SOUTH OF CURRENT BOX WHICH WOULD PROBABLY ENCOMPASS REST OF THE ILX
CWA. LIKELY TO BE ISSUED RIGHT AROUND FCST TIME AT 4 PM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.  CHARTS SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
FROM CANADA WITH THE FRONT REACHING CENTRAL IL WEDNESDAY AND HANGING
UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY.  THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES TO SOUTHERN IL
ON FRI.  PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR WED AND THU THEN DRY FRIDAY.
TEMPS INDICATED TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 80S ALL THREE DAYS.

...PRELIMINARY CCF FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY...

SPI BB 071/091 072/089 070 33633
PIA BB 070/090 071/088 068 33644
DEC BB 070/090 071/089 070 33633
CMI BB 070/088 071/089 070 33643
MTO BB 072/089 072/089 071 33643
LWV BB 073/090 073/090 071 33543

.ILX...NONE.

PALMER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1145 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2000

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED TORNADOES MAY OCCUR DURING THE INITIAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED FROM THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...HIGH LEVELS OF
HUMIDITY...AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90 DEGREES WILL RESULT IN
VERY UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR PEOPLE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT INDEX IS FORECAST TO REACH 100
DEGREES IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

SMITH/MILLER