Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1012 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2000

KILN SHOWING DYING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN IN/SOUTHWEST OH AND A
SMALL COMPLEX JUST TO OUR NORTH.  MORNING ILN SOUNDING SHOWS GOOD
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (-7.4) AND SOME POSITIVE AREA ALREADY.  06Z
MESOETA SEEMS TO BE HANDLING CURRENT CONVECTION WELL THAT JUST
MOVED NORTH OF FA.  IT STRENGTHENS A SECOND WAVE THIS MORNING NEAR
CHI AND SWINGS THAT THROUGH NORTHERN OH/IN 18Z TO 21Z WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE THE INITIATION OF THE NEXT BATCH OF CONVECTION.  AT THE
SAME TIME THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MI WILL BE SLIDING INTO
NORTHERN OH/IN.  MESOETA PRODUCES ABOUT 1500 J/KG NORTH OF DAY AND
CMH BY 21Z AND THEN SAGS IT SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN OHIO BY 00Z.

CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION WILL ONLY TWEAK
CURRENT WORDING.  ONE CONCERN IS WITH HIGH TEMPS.  AFTER EVALUATING
MORNING SOUNDING AND LOOKING LATEST aSKY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL
UP TEMPS OR WIDEN RANGE ACROSS ALL BUT FAR NORTH.

.ILN...NONE.
 TIPTON

INZ050-058-059-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-074-182000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
1037 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  WARM AND MOIST AIR WAS ALREADY IN PLACE
WHICH WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY.  THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD REACHING THE DAYTON AND COLUMBUS METRO AREAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF DAYTON AND COLUMBUS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO HAVE EMERGENCY P1ROCEDURES IN
PLACE BY THIS EVENING AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.END/WILKINSON

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-190000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
109 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS UPGRADED EAST-
CENTRAL INDIANA AND THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF OHIO TO A MODERATE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA
ARE RICHMOND INDIANA...DAYTON...SPRINGFIELD...COLUMBUS...AND
WAPAKONETA.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA...INCLUDING NEWARK...LANCASTER...
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...WILMINGTON...CINCINNATI...AND PORTSMOUTH IN
OHIO. ALSO INCLUDED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ARE SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA
AND MUCH OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED HAIL AS
LARGE AS BASEBALLS IN EASTERN ILLINOIS.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY BY MID AFTERNOON AND THEN INTO
THE MIAMI AND WHITEWATER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL OHIO BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO.

THE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE STORMS MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AT THAT POINT
BUT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD STAY ALERT TO CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.  STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL.

.END/WILKINSON