Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
330 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

06Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A COMPLEX AREA OF FRONTS/TROFS EXTENDING
FROM A LOW IN SWRN IA NEWD INTO WI AND THEN EWD INTO ONTARIO.  A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS OVR ERN IA. WARM AND MOIST
AIR MASS WAS IN PLACE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.

SFC FRONTS/TROFS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A DECENT CDFNT BY THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  ETA PROGS DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S AND
CAPES AROUND 4000 K/JG.  WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
700-500 MB WINDS FROM 40 TO 60 KTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY...STORM
ORGANIZATION APPEARS LIKELY.  THUS...WL MENTION SVR STORMS IN THE
ZONES.

WL COUNT ON THE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS OH-IN BREAKING UP BY MID AM.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS CAUSING TEMPS
TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S.  AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY DEPENDS
STRONGLY ON TEMPS REACHING FCST VALUES.

WL CARRY CHC EVENING TSRA DAY-CMH AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT CVG-PMH.  WL
BREAK OFF A NRN KY GROUP WHICH HAS NO TIMING FOR TONIGHT.

LOOKS LIKE DRIER AND LESS MUGGY CONDITIONS WL RETURN FOR A FEW DAYS
STARTING ON THURSDAY.

.ILN...NONE.

WIILKINSON

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-091500-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
520 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHEASTERN AND EAST-CENTRAL INDIANA...AND
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL OHIO...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS MODERATE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AROUND DAYTON...
BELLEFONTAINE...COLUMBUS...SPRINGFIELD...CINCINNATI AND PORTSMOUTH IN
OHIO. ALSO IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA ARE RICHMOND AND VERSAILLES
INDIANA AND MAYSVILLE AND CARROLLTON KENTUCKY.

A WARM...MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.  A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THuE FRONT.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND WINDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

WILKINSON