Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
230 PM EDT THU APR 20 2000

VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS MOVING SLOWLY EAST TO LAKE
ERIE BY EARLY FRIDAY. PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE...ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT SFC BASED INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND FLOW ALOFT HAS
RESULTED IN MODERATE RISK FOR SVR ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWFA.

NORTHERN COUNTIES ARE NOW IN TOR WATCH...WITH WATCH EXPECTED OVER
REST OF AREA SOON. WORST THREAT APPEARS TO BE FROM SQUALL LINE NOW
OVER WESTERN INDIANA. LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO AIRMASS DESTABILIZED
FROM DAYTIME HEATING THAT WAS GREATER THAN MODELS' FCST. LINE WILL
REACH THE AREA DURING TIME OF GREATEST DAYTIME HEATING.

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END TONIGHT AS LOW MOVES INTO AREA. MUCH
COOLER TEMPS DUE ON FRIDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN NORTHERLY BACKLASH.
FAN AND FWC IN AGREEMENT WITH STEADY TEMPS IN 40S ON FRIDAY. LIGHT
RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE AROUND.3..WITH SLOWLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.

.ILN...NONE.

CONIGLIO

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-202300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
146 PM EDT THU APR 20 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...

LOW PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS IS CIRCULATING MOIST UNSTABLE AIR INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THE LOW WILL ENTER
EASTERN INDIANA TOWARD EVENING AND CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH WARM MOIST AIR AT THE SURFACE RISING INTO A FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILE ALOFT...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE
LIMITS. DUE TO INCREASED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NOW PLACED MUCH OF THE
OHIO VALLEY IN MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE FROM STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY HAVE TO ENACT EMERGENCY PROCEDURES BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD ALSO BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION.

.END/CONIGLIO

OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051-052-210000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
209 PM EDT THU APR 20 2000

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY
AND CENTRAL OHIO...

A BAND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY EAST INTO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH WESTERN OHIO AROUND 4 PM EDT. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY HAVE WARMED INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. THIS
HAS ALLOWED THE AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DUE TO A
FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE ALOFT...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXCEED
SEVERE LIMITS WITH TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
OHIO AND THE NORTHERN MIAMI VALLEY.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

.END/RANDALL

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-
051>053-060>062-070>072-077-078-202115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
319 PM EDT THU APR 20 2000

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIAMI VALLEY...
THE WHITEWATER VALLEY...SOUTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...
NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL OHIO...

TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID AND UPPER
70S AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE AIR
MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE. DUE TO A FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE
ALOFT...SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH
TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CINCINNATI TRI-STATE AREA. ALSO...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE RAPIDLY EAST INTO
EASTERN INDIANA...WESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REACH EASTERN INDIAN AROUND 4 PM
EDT AND WESTERN OHIO BETWEEN 4 PM EDT AND 5 PM EDT.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR MOST OF EASTERN
INDIANA..WESTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

.END/RANDALL