Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Wilmington, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
259 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2000

IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD TOPS BEGINNING TO COOL ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER EAST OF CINCINNATI.  KILN SHOWING CELLS BEGINNING TO
BECOME MORE ORGANIZE.  VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES SKIES CLEARING
ACROSS NORTHERN IN/IL SOUTH OF COLD FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT.  BUT PREFER THE ETA AS IT SEEMS TO
HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON CURRENT SURFACE FEATURES AND CLOUD COVER.
IT ALSO IS SLOWER IN PUSHING FRONT AND DRIER AIR OUT OF FA.  IT
APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS WEST TO EAST LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER KY WHICH
WILL CREATE DEEP CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER.  THE MAIN THREAT
EVE/OVERNIGHT WILL BE FLOOD WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AND MEAN STORM
MOTION INDICATING SLOW PROPAGATING AND TRAINING ECHOS POSSIBLE.
WILL GO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
AND EVEN SOME FLOODING.  AT THE MOMENT WILL HOLD OFF ON FFA TO SEE
WHERE CONVECTION SETS UP AND THEN ISSUE IF NECESSARY.  AS FAR AS
SEVER WET BULB ZERO IS ABOVE 12 KFT...HOWEVER WITH LARGE CAPES
DOWNBURT POTENTIAL DOES EXIST.  WILL KEEP MENTION OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AS COLD FRONT AND
INSTABILITY IS SLOW TO MOVE SOUTH OF FA.

AS FOR TEMP WENT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FOR HIGHS AS NGM SEEMS A
LITTLE TO FAST WITH TAKING WARM FRONT SOU}TH.

MISILN SENT TO ALL.

.ILN...NONE.
 TIPTON

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-102100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
105 PM EDT MON JUL 10 2000

...RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXISTS ACROSS OHIO VALLEY...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER...HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

A COLD FRONT...FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH INTO CENTRAL OHIO AND INDIANA
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.  AN ADDITIONAL
INGREDIENT IS AN UPPER LEVEL PIECE OF ENERGY THAT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE COMBINATION OF
THESE WEATHER FEATURES WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

THE GREATEST THREAT OF FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE SOUTH OF DAYTON
AND COLUMBUS WHERE MORE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
UNSTABLE.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LARGE HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  IN ADDITION...
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALLOW FOR
POSSIBLE RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES AN HOUR...
WHICH COULD CREATE A FLOODING SITUATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE MEDIA FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

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