Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
135 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000

THUNDERSTORMS BEARING DOWN ON FORECAST AREA FROM WEST AND SOUTH.
WARM AIR HAS MIXED DOWN TO SURFACE ACROSS COASTAL ZONES WHERE
READINGS HAVE JUMPED INTO LOWER AND MID 60S WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 60.
FURTHER INLAND...COLD AIR IS ERODING QUICKLY AND FOG HAS DISSIPATED
WITH TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT IN MID 50S ALREADY.

STILL LOOKS THAT TODAY WILL BE ACTIVE WITH COLD FRONT BEARING
DOWN ON US AND SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SURFACE
BASED LIS OF -5 AND CAPES OF NEAR 2000. SHEAR IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT STILL HELICITIES 200 TO 300 ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. WET BULB ZEROS 7500 TO 8000 FT. WIND FIELDS STILL VERY
IMPRESSIVE WITH LOW LEVEL JET OF 50 TO 60 KT AND H5 WINDS OF 75-80
KT. ALSO OF CONCERN IS COOLER AND DRIER AIR COMING IN MID LEVELS
AFTER 18Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH PWS OF NEAR 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
WITH FFG IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 2 TO 3 INCHES...WILL NOT POST AND
FLOOD WATCH.

EXPECT SQUALL LINE OVER CENTRAL/WEST CAROLINAS TO ONLY SLOWLY WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES E ENCOUNTERING STABLE AIR ACROSS CENTRAL N AND S
CAROLINA. HOWEVER...CONVECTION MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH IS MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE UNSTABLE AIR/STRONG WIND FIELDS ALREADY IN
PLACE ALONG THE COAST. STILL...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST
LATER ON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
STRONG/DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POSSIBILITIES IN ZONES.

EVEN WITH OUT THUNDERSTORMS...IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY AND WILL
HIGHLIGHT WITH S TO SW WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

DRYING OUT TONIGHT AS FRONT COMES THROUGH 02Z-06Z. DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AS WELL. WILL NOT MENTION FOG TONIGHT AS WINDS SHOULD STAY UP
TO KEEP THINGS WELL MIXED.

WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW IN THAT
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP-FLOP IN MORE OR LESS ZONAL FLOW.

CWF: S/SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT. SMALL CRAFT WILL
STAY UP WITH THIS ISSUANCE. WILL GO S WIND 30 KT AND GUSTY BECOMING
SW TODAY. SW WIND 30 KT AND GUSTY BECOMING NW 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT. N
WIND 15 TO 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 TO 15 KT ON TUESDAY. SEAS BUILDING
TO 8 TO 10 FT TODAY...SUBSIDING TO 6 FT TONIGHT AND TO 3 FT ON
TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY CCF:
ILM TU 073/043 060/039 069 27+50
FLO TU 071/041 061/040 067 27+30
MYR TU 072/044 059/041 067 27+30

.ILM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC.

DIGIORGI

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-
046-151100-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
130 AM EST MON FEB 14 2000

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
NETWORK ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ACT ON
A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT HAVE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF REACHING THE GROUND WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED. STAY
TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND COMMERCIAL MEDIA FOR LATER
STATEMENTS. WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL W,EATHER SERVICE
IN WILMINGTON WHEN DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES THAT SEVERE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE IMMINENT ACROSS A PARTICULAR AREA.

DIGIORGI