Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
155 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2000

PER 17Z SFC ANALYSIS APPEARS ONE WEAK TROF WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR GSB
TO FLO...WHILE A BETTER TROF WAS FOUND ALONG THE MTNS AND THE FRONT
WAS ALIGNED W-E ACROSS WV AND SRN OH. THE MODELS ARE IN A CONSENSUS
...PARTICULARLY WITH THE FRONT PROGRESSING SWD TOWARD THE REGION
TONIGHT AS A DECENT S/WV DIVES SEWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY. ALL
POINT TOWARD FROPA ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

AS THE S/WV MOVES BY TONIGHT A LARGE SWATH OF OMEGA MOSTLY CROSSES
NC THEN SHIFTS OFF THE COAST FRI MORNING. PLAN ON HIGHEST POPS
TONIGHT GOING INTO FRI TO CORRESPOND W/ MAX UVM. STILL ENOUGH LLVL
CONVERGENCE AND MSTR AROUND THROUGH FRI TO KEEP MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA
INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM...ANOTHER S/WV WILL
APPROACH OUT OF THE NW LATER IN THE DAY ON SUN.

CAPE VALUES COULD BE PRETTY HIGH ACROSS THE NRN ZNS THIS EVENING...
THEN THE HIGHER VALUES SHIFT TO THE COASTAL AREAS BY FRI. SPC SLIGHT
RISK DEPICTION SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY AND
APPROACHING DYNAMICS. WILL MENTION THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE IN THE ZNS AND UPDATE THE SPS/OPU PRODUCT.

CWF: 5-6 FT LONG PERIOD SWELL SHOWING UP AT FRYING PAN LAST HOUR.
STILL FEEL THAT WITHIN 20 NM OF THE COASTLINE 5 FT SEAS WILL BE THE
RULE. PRES GRAD TIGHTENS UP TONIGHT...ESP S OF CAPE FEAR. PLAN ON
STICKING WITH 15 TO 20 KTS W/ GUSTS TO 25 KTS. AS PRES TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WATERS ON FRI...SPEEDS SHOULD RELAX AHEAD OF THE
WSHFT. N-NE FLOW FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
PROGRESSIVELY VEER TO AN ELY DIR ON SAT. REPORTS OF RIP CURRENTS AT H
MOST BEACHES...WILL UPDATE MWS TO REFLECT THE CONTINUED THREAT OF
RIP-CURRENTS.

PRELIMINARY CCF:
ILM TB 073/086 069/085 068 29751
FLO EB 072/087 068/087 067 29441
MYR TB 075/087 070/084 069 29562

.ILM...NONE.

PFAFF

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-
039-046-250400-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
425 PM EDT THU AUG 24 2000

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS
AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ACT UPON A WARM...MOIST
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  A FEW OF THE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LISTEN TO NOAAc WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.

RAN

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