Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
219 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2000

DISC: DO TO DELAY IN MODELS DATA WILL ONLY COMMENT ON ETA.

CONVECTION HAS BEGUN ALONG THE APEX OF THE SEA BREEZE-RESULTANT
BOUNDARY AND WINYAH BAY. ELSEWHERE THIS BOUNDARY IS EVIDENT ALONG THE
SC COAST AND HARD TO DISCERN OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA PORTION OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA AT THIS TIME. MSAS SHOWING LIS AT -4 TO -6 OVER
AREA SO BELIEVE THAT THAT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING OVER
AREA IS APPROPRIATE.

WEATHER PATTERN RATHER INTRIGUING WITH TWO AREAS OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WEST OF FLORIDA.  CURRENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING A LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL MOVING TO THE WEST
AND THE SECOND WAVE 500 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.  ETA
MODEL HAVING A POOR TIME INITIALLY THE FIRST LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AS ACTUAL LOW CENTER WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150 MILES NORTH OF
MODEL INITIALIZATION.  SECOND WAVE IS FORECAST TO RIDE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND WORK ITS WAY AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE
CURRENT ETA FORECAST KEEPS THE WAVE OFF THE COAST AND MOVING TO THE
NORTH IN THE GAP BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES.

IN THE WESTERLIES FORECAST DOES SHOWS NOT MUCH FORCING UNTIL FRONT
PUSHES TO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND SLOW SAGS
SOUTH OF AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MAKE
IT INTERESTING AND WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

CWF: THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS WINDS STAY TO THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH
AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS. SO NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED THROUGH THE
FIRST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. WILL WAIT UNTIL AVN HAS COMPLETELY
ARRIVED TO DECIDED ON A'NY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED PORTION IS REGARDS
TO SECOND TROPICAL WAVE.

PRELIM CCF:
ILM BB 077/092 077/092 076 121
FLO BB 076/095 075/095 075 121
MYR BB 076/089 076/088 076 121

.ILM...NONE.

HAWKINS