Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
108 PM EDT SAT APR 8 2000

CURRENT CONDITIONS:

LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX 60-80 NM OFF-SHORE MOVING TO THE NNE
WILL STAY JUST TO EAST OF FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

APPEARS TO BE TWO AREAS OF GOOD SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. ONE
AREA IS MOVING BY TO THE NORTH OF FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST FROM EC GEORGIA AND IS ALIGNED
RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED 75 TO 80 IN RESPONSE
TO SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO 30 MPH.

DEWPOINTS HAD CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S EARLIER TODAY ALONG THE
COAST BUT HAVE FALLEN BACK SEVERAL DEGREES WITH MIXING. UPSTREAM
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 50S.

IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL BOTTOM OUT ACROSS EC GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN MOVE NE ACROSS FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. RADAR/SATELLITE
SHOW THUNDERSTORMS BLOSSOMING IN THIS AREA AT TIME. COLD FRONT SHOULD
BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AT 00Z WITH H5 TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.

BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.
NARROW SQUALL LINE WITH THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL STILL
POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR THIS EVENING ALL ZONES. AM TEMPTED TO
GO LIKELY...BUT WILL STAY IN GOOD CHANCE CATEGORY WITH SO MUCH DRY
AIR IN PLACE.

BEHIND FRONT GOOD DRYING AND COLD AIR INTRUSION...TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON FALLING BACK TO/OR IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S JUST
BEHIND FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WSW WILL RELAX THE GRADIENT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT FALL TO CRITICAL LEVELS...LOOKING FOR UPPER
30S AT WORST AND SO FROST POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS NEARLY
NIL.

EXTENDED...AS HIGH SHIFTS OFF-SHORE...LARGE INFLUX OF MILDER AIR
RETURNS. SYSTEM COMING OUT OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE NORTH
OF OHIO RIVER TUE-WED. LOOKS AS THOUGH SOUTHERN END OF TROUGH LOSES
ITS IDENTITY AS JET LIFTS TO NORTH AND SO SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL KEEP MENTION OF CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR
WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP IT DRY.

CWF...CURRENT WINDS SW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SEAS SHOULD COME UP
IN RESPONSE TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO EAST. ALSO...AS GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FURTHER...WIND SHOULD COME UP TO AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT.
MARGINAL GALE STILL POSSIBLE AND SO WILL LEAVE AS IS WITH SW 30 TO 35
KT SHIFTING TO NW EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM WSW
ON SUNDAY AND GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE DAY. FLOW TURNS TO WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF
SLACKENING WIND AND SUBSIDING SEAS ON SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
ILM UU 043/064 041/074 052 27500
FLO UU 040/064 038/075 048 27500
MYR UU 042/063 040/074 050 27500

.ILM...GALE WARNING AMZ250-252-254-256.

DIGIORGI