Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Wilmington, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
238 AM EST MON JAN 10 2000

VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FORECAST TO
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT RACES NORTHEAST TODAY.  IN A DYNAMIC
SENSE...THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE QUITE
ENERGETIC THIS AM WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS AT H8 EXPECTED TO REACH
50 TO 60 KT.  PERHAPS THE ONLY LIMITATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS INSTABILITY WITH FORECAST CAPES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE.  IT APPEARS THOUGH THAT DYNAMICS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO WARRANT SOME MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
THE ZFP.

IN TERMS OF TANGIBLE WEATHER...AN ACCELERATION TO THE CURRENT ZFP
APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER WITH ALL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE PRECIP
SHOULD END IN THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME.  HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS
WILL BE BIASED TOWARD THE FAN. FWC NUMBERS LOOK VERY UNREASONABLE
WITHOUT MUCH SUN EXPECTED TODAY AND NO READILY IDENTIFIABLE SOURCE
OF SUCH WARM AIR APPARENT IN PRESENTLY OBSERVED DATA.

WILL GO MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE NUMBERS CLOSE AND LOOK REASONABLE.

CWF: SURFACE WIND PROGS INDICATING 30 TO 35 KT THIS AM.  THIS FACT
AND THE EXPECTATION OF A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSING
THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AM JUSTIFIES RAISING A GALE WARNING
FOR THE WATERS.  WEST WINDS OF 25 KT TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY TUESDAY.  SEAS IN THE OUT PERIODS WILL BE
ADJUSTED DOWNWARD WITH ALMOST DIRECT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
ILM TU 071/045 067/039 067 31+-0
FLO TU 070/044 068/037 068 31+00
MYR TU 069/045 067/040 067 31+-0

.ILM...GALE WARNING SURF CITY NC TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER RIVER SC.

RAN

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-101700-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
410 AM EST MON JAN 10 2000

...A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...

WARM...MOIST AIR CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE COMBINATION OF THE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG WINDS IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL PRODUCE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
58 MPH. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN 6 AM
AND 2 PM TODAY. ACTIVATION OF THE SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK MAY BE
REQUIRED THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLVING WEATHER CONDITIONS VIA LOCAL MEDIA
OR NOAA WEATHER RADIO TODAY. BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION
SHOULD THREATENING WEATHER MOVE INTO YOUR AREA.

COLLINS

AMZ250-252-254-256-NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-
039-046-101630-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
420 AM EST MON JAN 10 2000

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON TODAY.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH WARM...HUMID AIR TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND.  THE MAIN THREAT HOURS ARE FROM J<UST AFTER DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

RAN