Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CST THU FEB 17 2000

LATEST UPPER AIR SHOWS INITIAL UPPER WAVE TAKING FIRST AREA OF
CONVECTION AND PRECIP NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI/SE KS.  COPIOUS AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD WITH 850MB WARM FRONT ALSO
REFLECTED AT THE SFC ACROSS SOUTHERN KS WHERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE INCREASING UPWARD FORCING ACROSS THE
REGION.  LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS THE SFC LOW NOW OVER SE COLO. WITH
BEST PRESSURE FALLS POINTING TOWARD THE OK PANHANDLE FOR SFC LOW
MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  UPPER SYSTEM CONSISTS OF TWO
VORT MAXES DUMBELLING AROUND EACHOTHER ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO.
SAT LOOP EXTRAPOLATES THE MOVEMENT OF THE VORTS ACROSS CENTRAL KS
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6AM.  WATER VAPOR ALSO SHOWS CURRENT CONVECTION
FIRING IN NARROW AXIS OF DRIER AIR.

IN SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL FORCING NOW FIRING CONVECTION ACROSS
COLORADO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.  EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
ERUPT AFTER 4PM WITH SOME SEVERE THREAT FOR HAIL LIKELY SOUTHERN
THIRD OF CWA AS FORCING INCREASES WITH WEB BULB ZERO AROUND
10KFT...ALREADY GETTING PEA SIZE HAIL OUT OF CURRENT STORMS.

COUPLED JET STRUCTURE WILL ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE STATE TOWARD MIDNIGHT WHEN MAXIMUM VERTICAL MOTION
LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CWA. LOOKING AT 850-700MB BAROCLINIC
ZONES THE PRECIP PROGS STILL LINE UP WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE
850 MB BAROCLINICITY SOMEWHERE ALONG THE TURNPIKE WITH ANOTHER BAND
ORIENTED ALONG THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH NEAR
NEBRASKA.  NO DOUBT UPWARD MOTION WILL BE INTENSE WITH ALL ABOVE
MENTIONED FACTORS CONTRIBUTING...AS FOR SNOW...CURRENT THICKNESS
PROGS SHOW 1000-850/850-700 MB PROFILES TOO WARM FOR SNOW ACROSS ALL
OF THE CWA UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR UPRIGHT
CONVECTION AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER
FEEL THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN ALONG AND TURNPIKE
ALONG 850 FRONTOGENIC FORCING AND FEEL THICKNESS PROFILES WILL
REMAIN TOO WARM THROUGH MIDNIGHT TO SUPPORT SNOWFALL.

AS FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT...CHECKED THICKNESS PROFILES...700MB RH PROGS AND WITH
EXPECTED NORTHERN TRACK OF VORT/S EXPECT LESS ACCUMULATION OF SNOW
AND AFTER COORD WITH TOP AND DDC FEEL BEST WAY TO GO IS WITH A
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD ACCUMULATE
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF I-70.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE EAST AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING
AREA IN CLOUDY WINDY AND COLD CONDS...SOME CYCLONIC FLOW TO PERSIST
ALONG WITH CAA SO EXPECT MOLDY SKIES AND WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
30S AT BEST.

SAT LOOKS QUIET WITH WEAK WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS BUT NO
MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE...SUNDAY SEES A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TRYING TO
SAG INTO THE AREA WITH GENERALLY WEAK SFC GRAD/RIDGE AXIS TO PERSIST
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE GREAT
BASIN.

TRANSITION DAY TO BE MONDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN
NORTH...WILL KEEP A DRY FCST FOR NOW BUT WILL INSERT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM STORM MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY.

FCSTID = 11/OMITT...COORD DDC/TOP.
ICT   33  37  20  48 /  90  40  10   0
HUT   33  37  20  48 /  90  40  10   0
EWK   33  37  20  48 /  90  40  10   0
EQA   33  37  20  48 /  90  40  10   0
WLD   33  37  20  48 /  90  40  10   0
RSL   28  34  18  45 /  90  40   0   0
GBD   30  35  19  48 /  90  40   0   0
SLN   28  34  18  45 /  90  40   0   0
MPR   30  35  19  48 /  90  40   0   0
CFV   37  39  25  46 /  90  40  10   0
CNU   36  39  25  46 /  90  40  10   0
K88   36  39  25  46 /  90  40  10   0

.ICT...
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY FOR ZONES
wKSZ032>033...KSZ048>049.