Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 AM CDT TUE MAY 16 2000

MAIN FCST PROBLEMS APPEAR TO BE CONVECTIVE PCPN AND TEMPS THRU
WEDNESDAY. CONTINUE TO PREFER AN ETA/AVN BLEND FOR THIS FCST
WITH RESPECT TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING THRU THE SWRN STATES TODAY AND
TONIGHT, AND APPROACHING THE CNTRL PLAINS WEDNESDAY. NGM CONTINUES
TO LOOK A BIT TOO STRONG/FAST WITH THE UPR LOW...AND TOO FAR N WITH
SFC LOW...AT 36-48 HRS.

TODAY...LAPS SOUNDINGS SHOW BUILDING CAP FROM 750-850 EARLY THIS AM
IN WAA PROFILE. MODEST CHC FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS AM TO FIRE
ON ERN PERIPHERY OF 700 MB WARM PLUME. OTHERWISE...LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER ERN COLORADO WL INCREASE SERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY
DRAWING HIGHER LOW LVL MOISTURE IN. MOISTURE POOLS NORTH OF SFC WARM
FRONT WHICH SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN CO...ACROSS SWRN KS/NRN OK BY
AFTERNOON. DEGREE OF CAPPING SUGGESTS KEEPING POPS OUT FOR THIS PM.
CIRRUS PLUME WL CONTINUE OVER AREA AND MAY INHIBIT HIGHS SOME ALONG
WITH INCREASING SFC DWPTS. WL REDUCE CURRENT FCST HIGHS TOWARD
FWC/FAN.

TONIGHT...MCS DEVELOPMENT SEEMS LIKELY ALONG AND N OF 850 FRONT IN
NEBRASKA. FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THIS CONVECTION FROM AFFECTING OUR
AREA, ALTHOUGH 850/300 THICKNESS SUGGEST SOME SEWD PROPAGATION PSBL
TOWARD CNTRL KS LATE TONIGHT. 850/700 TEMPS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TONIGHT INDICATING STRENGTHENING CAP, THUS WL STICK WITH DRY FCST.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT IN LOW-MID LVLS TONIGHT WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE HELPING TO KEEP MINS MILDER THAN NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...UPR LOW MOVES INTO ERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
MAIN VORT MAX PUSHING NEWD OUT INTO WRN KS. SFC LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY
OVER FAR NERN CO/NWRN KS DURING DAY BEFORE PUSHING OUT INTO S-CNTRL
NEBRASKA WED EVE. THIS WL ALLOW DRYLINE TO PUSH INTO CNTRL SECTIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ETA SHOWS MID 50S DWPTS E OF DRYLINE IN KS IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH IS PROBABLY UNDERDONE. LOW-MID 60S DWPTS SEEM
MORE REASONABLE, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS BUT STILL
CAPPING TO OVERCOME (-115 J/KG). HOWEVER...MID LVL COOLING AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE WDLY SCT
OR SCT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG DRYLINE BY LATE PM. DEEP LYR SHEAR WL BE
STRONG WITH 110 KT UPR JET STREAK MOVG NEWD OUT OVER KS. SUPERCELL
TSTMS SHOULD BE THE OUTCOME FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT BREAKS CAP ALONG
DRYLINE INTO THE EVENING HRS.  WL FCST HIGHS ALONG LINES OF AVN/ETA
SUGGESTING MID-UPR 80S SUCH AS CURRENT FCST.

FCSTID = 9/CARUSO
ICT   81  65  87  60 /  10  10  30  40
HUT   81  63  88  59 /  10  10  30  40
EWK   79  65  87  60 /  10  10  30  40
EQA   79  65  87  61 /  10  10  20  40
WLD   81  65  88  61 /  10  10  30  40
RSL   80  62  87  55 /  10  10  30  30
GBD   81  62  88  55 /  10  10  30  30
SLN   78  64  87  59 /  20  10  30  40
MPR   78  64  87  60 /  20  10  30  40
CFV   80  65  86  62 /  10  10  2I0  40
CNU   79  65  86  62 /  20  10  20  40
K88   79  64  85  61 /  20  10  20  40

.ICT...NONE.