Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT MON SEP 11 2000

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIODS.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING THE STRONGEST COLD
FRONT OF THE SEASON PUSHING INTO CENTRAL KANSAS.  IN FACT...LATEST
LAPS DATA IS SHOWING PLENTY OF 500 AND 700 OMEGA WITH THE FRONT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NOT EVEN ANY CLOUDS DEVELOPING WITH
THE FRONT.  THE PROBLEM IS THE ATMOSPHERE IS JUST TOO DRY TO ALLOW
DEVELOPMENT.  THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASES AS
YOU MOVE INTO EASTERN KANSAS.  850 MB DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM BELOW
ZERO ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO OVER 10C IN THE SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS.  EXPECT A SQUALL LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHEN THE FRONT ENTERS THE RICHER
MOISTURE.  THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT
ESPECIALLY CONCERNED ABOUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE LARGE
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD.  ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA...CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE VERY SMALL...AND WILL CARRY A SLIGHT POPS AT
WICHITA AND INCREASE THEM TO THE EAST.

AFTER ANY CONVECTION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN MUCH COOLER
WEATHER LATER TONIGHT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S ACROSS THE CWA.  ON TUESDAY...850MB TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN 16C
AND 18C ACROSS THE REGION.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
ACROSS THE AREA...JUST A TAD WARMER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.  CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS TEMPERATURES FALL
BETWEEN 50 AND 55.  HOWEVER...A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT.  MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME 60 TO 70 PERCENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT 850 MB...SO THERE MAY BE SOME EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUDS.  OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES
AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO BETWEEN 20C AND 24C.

EXTENDED:
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE REGION SOMETIME ON THURSDAY.  THIS WILL
USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OFF COOL AIR INTO THE REGION.  WILL KEEP
EXTENDED DRY FOR NOW AS THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE APPEARS TO
BE VERY LIMITED.  THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN SOME CONFLICT.  THE
MRF REALLY AMPLIFIES A TROUGH IN THE EASTERN US...WHICH ALLOWS
COOLER AIR TO BACKDOOR US.  ON THE OTHERHAND...THE ECMWF KEEPS US IN
THE HEAT.  AT THIS POINT WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A COMPROMISE.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION: TOP,SGF

FCSTID = 8/FRANK
ICT   59  84  55  88 /  10   0   0   0
HUT   59  84  55  89 /  10   0   0   0
EWK   59  84  55  88 /  10   0   0   0
EQA   59  84  55  88 /  10   0   0   0
WLD   59  84  55  88 /  20   0   0   0
RSL   55  81  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
GBD   56  82  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
SLN   58  82  53  91 /   0   0   0   0
MPR   58  82  53  91 /   5   0   0   0
CFV   61  82  52  84 /  60   0   0   0
CNU   61  81  52  83 /  60   0   0   0
K88   61  81  52  83 /  60   0   0   0

.ICT...NONE.

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