Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
230 PM CDT SUN SEP 3 2000

SCT SHRA/TSRA STILL GOING ALONG AND NORTH OF SFC BOUNDARY AND HELPED
BY DEPARTING SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SAT PIX. ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO RE-GENERATE TO THE WEST UNDERNEATH GOOD 25H DIVERGENCE.

WATER VAPOR SAT PIX SHOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ACROSS 4 CORNERS REGION
WHICH ETA/AVN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND UPPER RIDGE. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD RE-ENFORCE E/SE FLOW AND KEEP SFC BOUNDARY SOUTH OF A
WICHITA TO CHANTUE LINE THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. PAST FEW SFC BOUNDARIES
HAVE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODEL HAD FORECAST...SO PREFER AVN/S
FARTHER SOUTH FORECAST POSITION.  E/SE FLOW WILL ALLOW SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION. WILL INTRODUCE SMALL CHANCE
FOR POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...BUT FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE IN NRN ZONES WHERE 85H BAROCLINC ZONE IS FORECAST AND
IS CLOSEST TO UPPER DYNAMICS. WITH INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GO ABOVE GUIDANCE VALUES FOR LOWS TONIGHT...AND AM ALSO CONCERNED
ABOUT LOW CLOUD FORMATION WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THEREFORE...WILL BE
MORE PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER TONIGHT.

FOR LABOR DAY..ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE...AVN/ETA AGAIN
INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LEAVING BASE OF UPPER TROF IN THE WESTERN
USA...WHICH MOVES THROUGH NRN KS MONDAY. THIS KEEPS SFC BOUNDARY
LURKING ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE E/SE FLOW MAY SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF
BLAZING HEAT...IT WILL USHER IN HIGHER DWPTS WHICH WILL COULD
POTENTIALLY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 105 IN NE/SE ZONES. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT ADVISORIES ATTM...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS EFFECTS ON TEMPS AND THE FACT HEAT INDICES
SHOULD STILL FALL BELOW CRITERIA AT NIGHT.  ETA STILL PUMPING OUT
SOME QPF ACROSS SRN/EASTERN KS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL
PLACE SMALL POPS IN FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH ADDED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR TSRA FORMATION. DESPITE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL GO WELL ABV
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS DUE TO INCREASING 1000-850 THICKNESSES AND
85H TEMPS STILL FROM 27 TO 30 C.

ETA/AVN SHOW YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO NW KS...WITH HELPS
FORM 85H LOW IN SE COLORADO AND INCREASES LOW LEVEL JET. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPARK NOCTURNAL PCPN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND WILL AGAIN ADD SMALL POPS TO THE FORECAST. AGAIN...FEEL GUIDANCE
VALUES TOO COOL ON LOWS.

500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE ON TUESDAY...SO ANY PCPN THAT FORMS MON
NIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE TUE MORNING PERIOD. DURING THE
DAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND ALLOW TEMPS TO SOAR MUCH ABV GUIDANCE VALUES FOR HIGHS.

IN THE EXTENDED...WHILE MRF TRIED TO BRING A SFC FRONT THROUGH ON
LATE THURSDAY...ECMWF KEEPS 85H THERMAL RIDGE AND 1000-500 THICKNESS
RIDGE OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. SO...WILL RUN WITH 100
DEGREE WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNTIL WE MODELS SO SOME
CONSISTENCY ON BRINGING A POTENT SYSTEM THROUGH.

THANKS FOR COORD...SGF...TOP.

RECORD HIGHS FOR LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY:
    4TH        5TH
ICT 102/1978  103/1931
CNU 102/1954  100/1978
SLN 106/1898  106/1922
RSL 104/1954  103/1959

FCSTID = 12/HYSELL
ICT   72 101  73 102 /  20  20  20  20
HUT   71 101  71 101 /  20  20  20  20
EWK   72 101  73 102 /  20  20  20  20
EQA   72 100  73 101 /  20  20  20  20
WLD   72 101  73 103 /  20  20  20  20
RSL   71 101  71 102 /  20  20  20  20
GBD   71 101  71 102 /  20  20  20  20
SLN   73 100  73 101 /  20  20  30  20
MPR   73 100  73 101 /  20  20  30  20
CFV   72 100  73 100 /  20  20  20  20
CNU   72 100  73 100 /  20  20  20  20
K88   72  99  73  99 /  20  20  20  20

.ICT...NONE.