Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 AM CDT THU JUL 20 2000

PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS ARE AGAIN THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH
THE NEXT 60 HRS. CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW LEVEL
JET INTERSECTING 85H BOUNDARY. ETA FORECASTS 85H BAROCLINC ZONE
ACROSS THE REGION INCREASES THROUGH 18Z...SO PCPN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG SPEED MAX ACROSS NRN
LAKES FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL AMPLIFY UPPER FLOW
PATTERN. THIS WILL HELP DRIVE FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A BIG QUESTION...AS ETA BRINGS FRONT THROUGH
FASTEST...AND NGM SLOWEST. ETA A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
RUN...SO WILL USE AN AVN/ETA MIX ON FRONTAL TIMING. AS OPPOSED TO
PAST SEVERAL DAYS...MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...SO POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORMS GREATER...ESPECIALLY IF MORNING CLOUDS ERODE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT ZONE
ISSUANCE TIME...AND WITH APPROACHING FRONT PROVIDING AN ADDITIONAL
FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...WILL GO ABV GUIDANCE NUMBERS ON POPS. HIGHS
SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW WEDNESDAY/S VALUES...WHICH LATEST
FORECAST HAD WELL HANDLED.

MODELS AGREE ON USHERING IN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT.
WITH EAST/NE FLOW...AXIS OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO
POOL NORTH OF THE FRONT IN SRN ZONES. BEST 85H THERMAL GRADIENT TO
BE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH...SO EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE IN UPSLOPE
FAVORED AREAS OF SW KS...THEN TRACK E/SE ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK WHERE
STRONGEST UPPER DIVERGENCE FORECAST. THUS WILL PLACE HIGHEST POPS IN
SRN ZONES AND LOWER THEM UP NORTH. WITH EAST FLOW USHERING IN HIGHER
DEWPOINT VALUES WILL GO ABV GUIDANCE ON LOWS TONIGHT.

MAY BE SOME LINGERING MORNING PCPN IN SC/SE ZONES FRIDAY MORNING.
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT IN UPSLOPE FAVORED
AREAS IN NW ZONES. WHILE CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND...FEEL FILTERED
SUNSHINE WILL BE ENOUGH TO WARM TEMPS ABOVE UPPER 70/NEAR 80 VALUES
IN NRN ZONES FRIDAY.

MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN NORTHWEST FLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BY 12Z SAT...BEST WAA AT 85H
WILL BE FOUND IN WRN ZONES SO WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN WRN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AND REMOVE POPS IN FAR EASTERN SECTIONS..

WITH SFC RIDGE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND FRONT FORECAST
TO BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE RED RIVER...WILL REMOVE PCPN CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY. WITH 85H THERMAL TROF ACROSS THE AREA...PLEASANT TEMPS
FROM 80 TO 85 EXPECTED.

FCSTID = 12/HYSELL
ICT   92  70  86  67 /  50  50  30  20
HUT   89  70  84  67 /  50  30  30  20
EWK   89  70  84  67 /  50  30  30  20
EQA   90  70  85  67 /  50  40  30  20
WLD   93  70  86  67 /  50  50  30  20
RSL   85  65  81  64 /  50  20  20  20
GBD   85  65  81  64 /  50  20  20  20
SLN   85  67  83  64 /  50  20  10  10
MPR   85  67  83  64 /  50  20  10  10
CFV   90  69  83  67 /  50  50  40  10
CNU   86  69  82  67 /  50  50  40  10
K88   86  69  82  67 /  50  50  30  10

.ICT...NONE.